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Econoday | Resource Center | Fed Watching Indicators

About the FedFed Watching IndicatorsKey Fed Facts

Fed Watching Indicators
Alternate Inflation Measures
Commodity and Crude Oil Prices
Gold Prices and the Dollar
Employment Cost Index
Productivity and Costs
The Labor Market
The Employment Situation
The Yield Curve
Housing Wealth
Market Wealth
Fed Funds Rate Target vs. Core Inflation
Nominal GDP versus M2 Growth
Fed Monetary Policy Summary



FED MONETARY POLICY SUMMARY


Twice a year, the FOMC meets for 1 1/2 days instead of one day in order to prepare the Fed chair for the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. Within the extensive report that is compiled, they also reveal their forecasts for key indicators such as GDP (real & nominal), the PCE deflator (because it is preferred to the CPI), and the civilian unemployment rate. Fed district presidents and governors each provide their forecasts which are compiled to form a consensus -- or central tendency. While one would expect this information to be valuable to market players, it has a very short life span. Private economists -- and those at the Fed too -- actually update their forecasts more frequently than just twice a year (usually monthly). Thus, about a month after these FOMC reports are issued, they are basically old news. But at least twice a year, one knows exactly what the Fed forecasts are for economic growth, inflation and the unemployment rate.



Economic Projections for 2006, Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents -- Updated July 2006
Indicator Memo 2005 Actual Range Central Tendency
(Change, 4th quarter to 4th quarter)
Nominal GDP 6.2% 5-½ to 6-½ % 6 to 6-¼ %
Real GDP 3.1% 3 to 3-¾ % 3-¼ to 3-½ %
PCE price index ex food & energy 1.9% 2-¼ to 3% 2-¼ to 2-½ %
(Average Level, 4th quarter)
Civilian unemployment rate 5.0% 4-½ to 5% 4-¾ to 5%



Economic Projections for 2007, Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents -- Updated July 2006
Indicator Memo 2005 Actual Range Central Tendency
(Change, 4th quarter to 4th quarter)
Nominal GDP 6.2% 4-¾ to 6% 5 to 5-½ %
Real GDP 3.1% 2-½ to 3-¼ % 3 to 3-¼ %
PCE price index ex food & energy 1.9% 2 to 2-¼ % 2 to 2-¼ %
(Average Level, 4th quarter)
Civilian unemployment rate 5.0% 4-¼ to 5-¼ % 4-¾ to 5%





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