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Twice a year, the FOMC meets for 1 1/2 days instead of one day in order to prepare the Fed chair for the semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress. Within the extensive report that is compiled, they also reveal their forecasts for key indicators such as GDP (real & nominal), the PCE deflator (because it is preferred to the CPI), and the civilian unemployment rate. Fed district presidents and governors each provide their forecasts which are compiled to form a consensus -- or central tendency. While one would expect this information to be valuable to market players, it has a very short life span. Private economists -- and those at the Fed too -- actually update their forecasts more frequently than just twice a year (usually monthly). Thus, about a month after these FOMC reports are issued, they are basically old news. But at least twice a year, one knows exactly what the Fed forecasts are for economic growth, inflation and the unemployment rate.
 Economic
Projections for 2006, Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents -- Updated July 2006
|
| Indicator |
Memo 2005
Actual |
Range |
Central
Tendency |
| (Change, 4th quarter to 4th
quarter) |
| Nominal GDP |
6.2% |
5-½ to 6-½ % |
6 to 6-¼ % |
| Real GDP |
3.1% |
3 to 3-¾ % |
3-¼ to 3-½ % |
| PCE price index ex food & energy |
1.9% |
2-¼ to 3% |
2-¼ to 2-½ % |
| (Average Level, 4th quarter) |
| Civilian unemployment rate |
5.0% |
4-½ to 5% |
4-¾ to 5% |
 Economic
Projections for 2007, Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank Presidents -- Updated July 2006
|
| Indicator |
Memo 2005
Actual |
Range |
Central
Tendency |
| (Change, 4th quarter to 4th
quarter) |
| Nominal GDP |
6.2% |
4-¾ to 6% |
5 to 5-½ % |
| Real GDP |
3.1% |
2-½ to 3-¼ % |
3 to 3-¼ % |
| PCE price index ex food & energy |
1.9% |
2 to 2-¼ % |
2 to 2-¼ % |
| (Average Level, 4th quarter) |
| Civilian unemployment rate |
5.0% |
4-¼ to 5-¼ % |
4-¾ to 5% |
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