Most of the economic data in the week ending March 13 predates the attack on Iran that began on February 28. The effects of the war are not immediately evident in most of the economic data. However, energy prices have reacted with immediacy and increased steeply. Nowhere is it more notable than in the cost of gasoline. The EIA price for a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.937 in the week ending February 23, gained to $3.015 in the week ending March 2, and jumped to $3.502 in the week ending March 9.
This could well be enough to change consumer travel and entertainment plans for school spring breaks and the upcoming Easter weekend (Good Friday, April 3 through Sunday, April 5). Purchases of other spring merchandise – particularly at home and garden centers – could be scaled back.
Even if gasoline prices retrace some of their climb, it is near the time of year when refineries prepare to change formulations for summer which usually results in an uptick in prices. Somewhat higher gasoline prices may be around for a while.
