There are few economic data reports with market-moving potential in the April 17 week. Strength in the housing market should not be a surprise. With mortgage interest rates moving lower in March, demand for new and existing homes should be better than previously forecast and manage some modest gains in sales.
The April report from the NAHB on homebuilders’ sentiment at 10:00 ET on Monday should manage an incremental increase from the 44 in March which was the highest since 46 in September 2022. Housing starts and building permits for March at 8:30 ET on Tuesday could see another modest increase for single-family homes after the 1.1 percent rise in February, this while multi-unit starts have been holding up as the home of choice for those entering the housing market. Permits issued may not see a similar gain as February’s 13.8 percent jump but could remain near the 1.524 million permits of that month which was the highest since September 2022.
Sales of existing homes in March won’t match the 14.5 percent rise in February and will have a hard time gaining momentum with supplies of homes so low. Competition for units will mean that prices are not going to fall much, if at all.
What may be the most interesting of the reports is the next Beige Book at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. The anecdotal evidence about economic conditions across the 12 Fed District Banks may lose some of the more upbeat tone that marked the last report that covered early January through late February. The next report will be from early March through early April and will include the disruptions in the banking sector that began on March 10 with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. The report has been consistent with a weak economy since September 2022 but had improved somewhat by the March release.
