Federal Reserve policymakers will not be commenting on monetary policy this week since it falls within the communications blackout period that surrounds the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting. Expectations for the meeting are consistent with no change in the fed funds target range of 5.25-5.50 percent that has been in place since July 2023. There is no official update to the summary of economic projections at the upcoming meeting, so any message the FOMC wants to convey will be contained in the meeting statement at 14:00 ET on Wednesday, May 1 and/or delivered in Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference at 14:30 ET.
The economic data during the April 22 week are unlikely to have any substantive impact on the outlook for the FOMC meeting. If anything, the latest numbers should confirm that the US economy is expanding modestly despite still restrictive monetary policy. The FOMC is expecting growth to slow in coming months but the first quarter performance has been more-or-less in line with its median forecasts.
The highlight of the economic data calendar is the advance estimate of first quarter GDP set for release at 8:30 ET on Thursday. The three Fed district bank GDP Nowcasts point to growth something above the 2 percent-mark. Growth should get support from mainly personal consumption expenditures. The first quarter of the year often is the weakest, but this may not be the case in 2024.
