Expectations are high that the FOMC will be cutting rates soon – perhaps at the September 17-18 meeting. Any economic data that would support that outlook will be welcome. The reports during the July 15 week will not do much to further what is known about inflation and the labor market, but they should help paint a picture of the wider economy that will inform Fed policymakers’ upcoming decision.
Central to this is the next Beige Book at 14:00 ET on Wednesday which will provide anecdotal evidence about conditions across the 12 Fed district banks for the period between mid-May and early July. Recent Beige Books have indicated that the US economy has pulled away from a potential recession and returned to more broadly – if slightly – expansionary activity. The next report may lose some of that firmer growth as consumers backed away from spending, business conditions softened somewhat, and the outlook was more uncertain. However, the report also will reflect conversations with respondents from before Chair Jerome Powell’s monetary policy testimony and the most recent reports on inflation. It won’t take into account the brightened prospect for a rate cut or that there is some evidence that consumer spending started to pick up in early July.
The data on retail sales for June at 8:30 ET on Tuesday is anticipated to finish the third quarter with another soft month. With motor vehicle sales flagging in June, this could hold back the overall performance. Although prices for gasoline were down a bit in June from May, consumers may have held off travel until the week of the July 4 holiday. Online sales activity is probably waiting for Amazon’s annual Prime Day event in July and the associated discounts at Amazon’s rivals. The weakness in the housing market should also be seen in sales of electronics, appliances, and home furnishings.
