US statistical agencies are still working to get their backlog of reports done and reset the release schedule. The monthly employment data for November was previously scheduled for Friday, December 5. However, it now won’t be out until Tuesday, December 16 at 8:30 ET. This will be after the December 9-10 FOMC meeting which means that the ADP national employment report again gains prominence as a measure of labor market health.
ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 in private payrolls in November. Payrolls have now declined in three of the past four months. Payrolls are trending down, if unevenly.
Payroll decreases were across broad sectors. However, the more interesting point is that small companies (1-49 employees) saw a decline of 120,000 in payrolls, while mid-sized companies’ (50-499 employees) payrolls rose 51,000 and large firms’ (500+ employees) payrolls increased 39,000. It appears that there are different labor markets emerging. Smaller firms are unable to attract and retain workers, and/or are cutting back on operations in an uncertain economy. Bigger firms are finding the workers they need with the easing in labor supply and/or offer opportunities to the already-employed that small companies cannot match.
Signs of increased layoff activity are largely absent from the week data on jobless claims, although decrease of 27,000 to 191,000 in the November 29 week will probably see a rebound in the coming week. The timing of the Thanksgiving holiday threw off the seasonal adjustment factors, as well as delaying some of the usual end-of-year job cuts.
