The longest government shutdown on record is over. The rescheduling of missed economic data reports will be anxiously awaited. A few of the monthly reports may end up being skipped as preferable to an accelerated release schedule. However, the data that would have been included in those reports will be compiled and added to government databases.
The statistical agencies will need a few days to get back to work, determine the best course of action, and make their announcements. Some reports will appear more quickly. The September monthly employment report was largely complete at the start of the shutdown and could be released in short order. State data on weekly jobless claims has been accumulating and could be compiled and released with little further delay. Most of the rest of the reports will require longer efforts to get back on track.
After previous shutdowns, the statistical agencies were able to perform surveys of the information for the entire period and subsequently play catch-up issuing reports until they were back on schedule. The length of the shutdown just ended may mean it is less work just to skip one month’s report, issue the most recent data along with that which would have been in the prior report, and then return to the previously announced calendar of releases.
The inflation reports will be able to go back and determine the prices charged for the items in their normal surveys. Getting the October data for the consumer and producer price indexes will not be a problem. For the household and establishment surveys in monthly employment numbers, the difficulty is not in getting the surveys done. The problem is in how to properly classify the self-reports of employment status of workers temporarily furloughed and/or how businesses report their payroll changes. The survey reference period for October ended on October 18, well into the shutdown. The relatively late timing of the survey period means that the BLS should be able to capture a good picture of conditions in October.
Government Shutdown Delays to date:
October 1 – Construction spending for August
October 2 – Motor vehicle sales for September
October 2 – Initial jobless claims week ending September 26
October 2 – Factory orders for August
October 3 – Employment situation for September
October 7 – International trade for August
October 9 – Initial jobless claims week ending October 3
October 9 – Wholesale trade for September
October 10 – Treasury Statement for September
October 15 – CPI for September, rescheduled to October 24
October 16 – Initial jobless claims for week ending October 10
October 16 – Retail sales for September
October 16 – Final Demand PPI for September
October 16 – Business inventories for September
October 17 – Housing starts for September
October 17 – Import and export price indexes for September
October 17 – Industrial production and capacity utilization for September
October 17 – Treasury international capital system for September
October 20 – Conference Board LEI for September
October 23 – Initial jobless claims for week ending October 17
October 23 – CFNAI for September
October 24 – New home sales for September
October 27 – Durable goods orders for September
October 30 – Initial jobless claims for week ending October 24
October 30 – GDP (third quarter advance)
October 31 – Personal incomes for September
October 31 – Employment cost index for second quarter
November 3 – Construction spending for September
November 4 – International trade for September
November 4 – Factory orders for September
November 4 – Motor vehicle sales for October
November 6 – Initial jobless claims for October 31
November 6 – Productivity and costs for third quarter
November 7 – Employment situation for October