The lineup of the 2023 FOMC voters will be in place until the FOMC meeting on January 30-31, 2024.

In 2023, the rotation of district bank presidents voting at FOMC meetings consists New York’s John Williams (FOMC Vice Chair), Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker, Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, and Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari. While all of these policymakers were and are supportive of past rate hikes, some differences of opinion are starting to emerge as to whether restrictive monetary policy needs another nudge higher. There is no difference when it comes to the necessity of keeping rates higher for longer.

In 2024, the next set of FOMC voters will be New York’s John Williams (New York has a permanent spot in the rotation), Cleveland’s outgoing president Loretta Mester, Richmond’s Thomas Barkin, Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic, and San Francisco’s Mary Daly. Mester is definitely among the inflation hawks, at least as far as keeping rates higher for some time yet. Barkin is also among those who thinks the job is not done in taming inflation and rates should remain “higher for longer”. Bostic is leaning against more rate hikes, but not in a hurry to cut rates. Daly is not yet willing to say rates have topped out, and also isn’t in a rush to bring rates down again.

The changeover in Fed voters in January probably will not alter the outlook for monetary policy. Unless and until the economic data are convincing in regard to sustainable disinflation – especially in stubborn shelter and non-housing services prices – and achieving the 2 percent flexible average inflation target, consumers and businesses should plan on interest rates remaining about where they currently are for some time yet.

The only expected changes among FOMC participants in 2024 are the retirement of Mester at mid-year and the appointment of a new president at the St. Louis Fed. If Mester’s successor is not chosen by the time of her departure, Chicago’s Austen Goolsbee will vote as an alternate until the spot is filled. The search for James Bullard’s successor at the St. Louis Fed continues, but St. Louis does not vote in the FOMC rotation until 2025.

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