Annual revisions to 2023’s CPI data issued on February 9 hold no surprises, unlike the upward revision in 2022. The all-items CPI had some minor revisions for the October-December period, while the core CPI – excluding food and energy – is unrevised from the previous reports. The BLS revises the seasonal adjustment factors once a year and may revise the seasonally adjusted indexes up to five years prior.
The lack of any significant revision means Fed policymakers won’t have to alter the basis for the forecasts regarding the outlook for price stability, or reassess their past conclusions about the progress for disinflation since the start of the current rate hike cycle in March 2022. Policymakers will be able to look ahead with greater confidence that they understand the environment in which to set monetary policy and can leave rates on hold for now.