High points for economic data scheduled for January 6 week

Activity begins to pick up again after the holiday period. The focus will shift to the upcoming data reports on the labor market and inflation, and how these will affect the outlook for monetary policy.

The minutes of the December 17-18 FOMC meeting are set for release at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. Given that there was a dissent in the meeting vote (11-1, with Cleveland’s Beth Hammack preferring no change in rates), it will be interesting to have a sense if there was a similar sentiment among others of the 19 FOMC participants, not just one among the 12 voters. If so, it will further color the interpretation of the quarterly summary of economic projections (SEP) released on December 18 as more hawkish on inflation and dovish on the economy and labor market. If there was a larger minority opinion that rates should not be raised three weeks ago, it probably means that hopes for another cut any time soon will be diminished.

There are no inflation reports in the January 6 week, but plenty regarding conditions in the labor market. The most important of these is the monthly employment report on Friday at 8:30 ET. Early forecasts suggest that hiring will be somewhere in the 150,000-200,000 range. Historically December change in nonfarm payrolls tends to come in above the consensus forecast and receive a revision higher in the subsequent month. Some of this will depend on how quickly December college graduates become employed and/or if job categories that normally shrink in December actually do so and by how much.

Note that the BLS will release annual revisions to the Household Survey in the December report. The seasonally adjusted numbers may be revised back as far as five years. The data in the Establishment Survey will get its annual revision with the January data set for release at 8:30 ET on Friday, February 7.