Most of the economic data are going to be less relevant in the wake of the FOMC’s 75 basis point rate hike on September 21. Housing data will mostly look back at August when there was a brief respite in the upward climb of mortgage rates. Now that the 30-year fixed rate is over 6 percent, it will be a qualified buyers’ housing market with more supply and with more power to negotiate prices and terms.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated Fed policymakers expect the US economy is going to have a period of “very” below trend growth – below the 1.8 percent which is the Fed’s longer-run forecast. Powell didn’t say the US economy is in recession, but it is starting to look that way.
The FOMC statement of September 21 said current growth is “modest”. We’ll get a better sense of that when the third and final estimate of second quarter GDP is posted at 8:30 ET on Thursday. Importantly, this report will include five years of revisions. It will be seen if the first and second quarters show any improvement or deterioration from the down 1.6 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, that were previously reported. With the third quarter now well-advanced, GDP Nowcasts are pointing to anemic growth when the advance report is released on Thursday, October 27 at 8:30 ET.