High points for US data in September 16 week
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday amid universal expectations for the first rate cut since the current target range of 5.25-5.50 percent was set in July last year. What is not universal is the [...]
September 2024
Global data subpar versus expectations; US hitting estimates
Global economic data continue to underperform relative to forecasts. Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) fell 6 points in the week to minus 16 and edged a further 3 points lower to minus 20 less prices [...]
September BoE MPC Preview: Levels versus trends
Investors are split on this month’s BoE MPC announcement but the majority call is for no change. The August reduction in Bank Rate to 5.0 percent only got through by the tightest of margins (5-4) [...]
Size of 2025 US COLA for Social Security about 2.4 percent
The average of the July-August CPI-W for 2024 indicates that the cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients will be about 2.4 percent when it goes into effect in January 2025. While the calculation for the [...]
September ECB meeting preview: Easy does it
Following July’s pause, the ECB is widely seen resuming its easing path this week. Falling inflation, a strengthening euro and an expected Federal Reserve rate cut next week provide all the scope needed while a [...]
High points for US data scheduled for Sept. 9 week
The communications blackout period around the September 17-18 FOMC meeting is in effect (midnight, Saturday, September 7 through midnight, Thursday, September 19). If any Fed officials speak, it will not be about monetary policy. Even [...]
Global data once again subpar relative to expectations
Global economic data have been consistently underperforming economist forecasts since the beginning of August, though only to a limited degree. Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) held unchanged in the week at minus 10, just within [...]
US consumer confidence in presidential election years
The impact of a presidential race on consumer confidence is murky. Consumers’ perceptions of the world are more heavily influenced by the things that have an immediate impact on household budgets and planning. Who is [...]
August 2024
High points for US economic data for September 2 week
The September 2 week starts with the Labor Day observance on Monday with a full market close in the US for stocks and bonds. The data calendar will have a few shifts in the normal [...]
Global data mostly weak but Eurozone, Canada outperforming
Global economic data continue to underperform expectations, at minus 10 on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index and at minus 21 when excluding price data (RPI-P). The latter offers an indication on real economic activity which has [...]