It is sometimes hard to parse out what Fed policymakers mean when they talk about non-housing services inflation. The CPI report has a special aggregate of the CPI for services less rent of shelter. It [...]
There are two reports in the February 13 week that will be closely examined for hints about the direction of monetary policy and the state of the US economy.First is the January consumer price index [...]
The BLS annual revisions to the CPI seasonal adjustment factors released on February 10 go back 5 years. The revisions don’t change the overall picture for the CPI performance in the last few years. Most [...]
There’s virtually nothing on the economic data calendar that is likely to capture market attention in the February 6 week, especially as it will take a little time to fully digest the implications of January’s [...]
There may be differences over the desired size of any hike, but a concerted raft of hawkish comments from Governing Council (GC) members this month strongly suggests unanimity over the need for higher ECB interest [...]
Having already been raised in December 2021 and again at each MPC meeting in 2022, Bank Rate is widely expected to be hiked for a tenth successive time on Thursday. However, the magnitude of Thursday’s [...]
The January 30 week will see a laser-focus on the outcome of the January 31-February 1 FOMC meeting. It is not in question as to whether FOMC voters will raise the fed funds target range [...]
The January 23 week encompasses the communications blackout period around the January 31-February 1 FOMC meeting. This starts at midnight on Saturday, January 21 and runs through midnight on Thursday, January 26. Fed officials will [...]
The general business conditions index in the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey plunged 21.7 points to minus 32.9, its lowest since minus 78.2 in April 2020 and minus 48.5 in May 2020 during [...]
The January 16 week starts with a federal holiday on Monday to observe Marin Luther King, Jr. Day. There will be a full close for both the bond and stock markets. There will be little [...]
