August 15, 2022
High points for economic data scheduled for August 15 week
The August 15 week has reports related to the housing market that will be important, but it’s the numbers on July retail and food services sales on Wednesday at 8:30 ET that are likely to attract the most interest.
August 9, 2022
High points for coming US economic data
Employment data in the August 1 week affirmed Fed policymakers’ views that the labor market is strong and able to withstand some rate hikes. The huge upside surprise of a 528,000 gain in nonfarm payrolls in July is good evidence that the maximum employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate is so far faring well enough with less monetary stimulus.
August 2, 2022
August BoE MPC Preview: Time for a change of gear
Pressure on the BoE MPC to step up the pace of its monetary tightening has been building quite steadily since its last meeting in June. Five successive 25 basis point hikes have lifted Bank Rate to 1.25 percent but actual inflation continues to climb and inflation expectations remain dangerously high.
August 1, 2022
High points for economic data scheduled for August 1 week
First, a quick look back to put this week’s data into context. July 28 saw the release of the advance estimate for second quarter GDP with a decline of 0.9 percent following 1.6 contraction in the first quarter.
July 21, 2022
Manufacturing surveys from New York and Philadelphia don’t agree
What to make of the opposite movements in the current manufacturing conditions in the New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys? The New York Fed headline index rose 12.3 points to 11.1 in July, while the Philadelphia headline index fell 9 points to minus 12.3.
July 18, 2022
Highpoints for economic data scheduled for July 18 week
Much of the economic data in the July 18 week will focus on the housing market, but what will be more in most people’s minds is the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 26-27.
July 18, 2022
July ECB meeting preview: The catch-up begins
The long-awaited first interest rate hike of the ECB’s new policy cycle should be delivered on Thursday. The June statement indicated that the central bank was planning to lift official rates by 25 basis points at its July meeting and to follow that by at least a further 25 basis points in September.
July 14, 2022
Barr confirmed by Senate; FOMC to have full slate
On Wednesday, Michael Barr was confirmed by the Senate as a governor of the Federal Reserve to complete a term ending on January 31, 2032 and as vice chair for supervision for a four-year term that will begin on the day he is sworn into office.
July 11, 2022
Highpoints for economic data scheduled for July 11 week
The week will start slow for data reports. There will be a day or two to take a second and deeper look at the prior week’s June employment report which appeared to exceed most expectations.
June 14, 2022
June BoE MPC Preview: The interest rate hill is getting steeper
Another BoE MPC announcement, another hike in interest rates. Having already raised Bank Rate at each of the last four meetings, financial markets seem convinced that Thursday’s statement will make it five out of five, making it the steepest sequence of increases in quarter of a century.
June 13, 2022
SNB preview June 2022: Accepting a stronger franc and watching the ECB
Testing how far the SNB is prepared to let the Swiss franc appreciate has been a familiar characteristic of the FX market ever since the central bank abandoned its CHF1.20 target floor against the euro back in January 2015.
June 13, 2022
US highpoints for June 13 week: FOMC, inflation expectations
It isn’t a piece of economic data that will be the highpoint in the June 13 week, but the FOMC meeting of June 14-15.
June 10, 2022
50-point hike solid bet for June 14-15 FOMC
Unless there is a last-minute significant exogenous event, the FOMC is set on lifting short-term rates by 50 basis points at the June 14-15 meeting – and very likely at the meeting or two after that.
June 7, 2022
Podcast – ECB credibility at risk
With the gap between U.S. and Eurozone inflation expected to all but disappear this week, talk that the ECB is falling dangerously behind the curve can only get louder. The central bank’s credibility will be sorely tested in the absence of a genuinely hawkish policy announcement on Thursday. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss.
June 7, 2022
June ECB meeting preview: Better late than never, but not just yet
At long last, it looks as if the ECB’s hawks are about to get their way. Thursday’s policy announcement is widely expected to pave the way for the first hike in the central bank’s key interest rates since July 2011. However, while a move as soon as this week is possible, it is still very unlikely.
June 1, 2022
May payrolls likely to be near expectations
Looking back over the pattern of the BLS employment situtation numbers versus expectations in the Econoday survey of forecasters, the outlook for the May payroll data set for release at 8:30 ET on Friday, June 3 seems to hold few surprises.
May 19, 2022
Manufacturing slowing in New York and Philly Fed surveys
The May readings for the general business conditions indexes in the New York (Empire State) and Philadelphia Fed’s respective surveys of manufacturing are signaling weaker activity in the month.
May 11, 2022
US workers continue to start their own businesses
The data on business formation for April suggest that while the pace for applications for new employer identification numbers (EINs) is slowing down, the level is still quite elevated in the nearly two years since the March-April 2020 recession ended.
May 10, 2022
Podcast – The growth-inflation gap is still widening
The first quarter was not a good one for the world’s advanced economies. High inflation is squeezing real incomes and rising borrowing costs, the war in Ukraine and shortages of raw materials and labour increase the risk of worse to come. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss how poor the economic outlook might be.
May 10, 2022
Boeing orders dip in April; Berlin Air Show may help May
Boeing reported a total of 46 orders for aircraft in April. Of these, 9 were from North American buyers, 6 from foreign buyers, and 31 from unidentified buyers which are typically for military aircraft.
May 9, 2022
Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey reflects more normal economy
Banks reported easier standards for credit cards and auto loans, and for mortgages and home equity lines of credit.
May 3, 2022
May BoE MPC Preview: Walking the fine line
Despite some surprisingly dovish rhetoric from the BoE in March financial markets expect May’s MPC meeting to deliver a fourth successive increase in Bank Rate. If correct, the consensus call for a 25 basis point hike would see the benchmark rate raised to 1.0 percent, matching its highest level since early February 2009.
May 2, 2022
District bank surveys for service sector remain in expansion
All 5 Federal Reserve District Bank surveys for the service sector point to modest-to-moderate activity in April. Three of the five surveys had declines and two were higher, but all remained in expansion.
April 29, 2022
Fed District surveys of manufacturing for modest-to-moderate growth
Of the five Federal Reserve district bank manufacturing surveys published for April, three of the headline indexes are down and two are up.
April 28, 2022
A down quarter for GDP could alter FOMC’s rate outlook
The downside surprise of a 1.4 percent decline in first quarter 2022 GDP in the advance estimate may shake convictions that the FOMC will raise the fed funds rate by 50 basis points when they meet on May 2-3.
April 26, 2022
Podcast – The race to interest rate neutrality
Only a short while ago, central banks were wary about raising interest rates at all. A few still are, but some now clearly favour a much more rapid approach to the equilibrium level. But with QT also just around the corner, the double whammy will pose a major test for equities and global economic activity.
April 25, 2022
Retail revision mixed; Q1 consumer spending looks strong
Annual revisions to the Census Bureau data on retail sales resulted in upward revisions to the data for February and March and a downward revision for January.
April 25, 2022
US Nowcasts pointing to modest first-quarter growth
The GDP nowcasts from two of the Fed’s district banks point to modest – but in the Fed’s eyes acceptable – expansion in the first quarter 2022.
April 22, 2022
FOMC Voter Roll Call for May 2-3 Meeting
Expectations that the FOMC will lift short-term rates by 50 basis points at the May 2-3 meeting are high and not without reason.
April 21, 2022
New York and Philadelphia manufacturing surveys now and future
Despite some month-to-month volatility, the current general business condition indexes in the New York and Philadelphia Feds’ respective surveys of manufacturing are telling a similar story for 2022 to-date.
April 14, 2022
New businesses forming more slowly as financing costs rise
Applications for Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) are fading on a monthly seasonally adjusted basis. Ever since it was clear that mortgage interest rates are rising and big gains in home values are easing up, would-be entrepreneurs are less inclined to refinance their homes and take out some equity to start a business.
April 13, 2022
What might make the March retail report a surprise
The data on March retail sales is set for 8:30 ET on Thursday, April 14. This is the last report that is likely to have an impact on expectations for the advance estimate for first quarter GDP.
April 12, 2022
Podcast – Recession worries are building
While the U.S. yield curve tries to work out whether it should be inverted or not, talk of a possible recession is becoming more widespread as financial markets anticipate increasingly aggressive central bank tightening. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the latest data are telling us.
April 12, 2022
April ECB meeting preview: Caught between a rock and a hard place
The surprisingly hawkish (but hardly aggressive) recalibration of policy announced at the ECB’s March meeting was supposed to reassure investors that the central bank was fully aware that inflation was too high and that it was willing to act.
March 21, 2022
Outlook for US first-quarter GDP improving but subdued
The GDP Nowcasts from the St. Louis and Atlanta Fed’s are starting to look more similar and hinting that as the first quarter 2022 progresses, the economic data are looking better. Still, the rate of expected annualized growth is modest.
March 15, 2022
Podcast – Hawks still rule the roost
While the Ukraine crisis might have tempered some rate hike speculation, a less accommodative twist from the ECB last week together with near-certain tightenings from both the Fed and the BoE over the next couple of days mean that in general the policy hawks remain in the ascendency. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead.
March 15, 2022
March BoE MPC Preview: Three out of three?
Having already just seen policy tightened at back-to-back meetings for the first time since 2004 and despite the crisis in Ukraine, investors seem fairly certain that Thursday’s BoE MPC announcement will deliver a third successive hike in interest rates. If the consensus forecast is correct, a 25 basis point increase would put Bank Rate at 0.75 percent, matching its highest level since February 2000.
March 14, 2022
Next FOMC meeting a tough call
The FOMC has an unenviable task of trying to guide monetary policy through a period of turbulence. The March 15-16 meeting will be pivotal to communicating its present actions and setting the tone for the future.
March 8, 2022
March ECB meeting preview: A large Russian cog in the policy recalibration
Ever since February’s meeting, this month’s ECB announcement has been widely expected to be a watershed moment for monetary policy. Although there is no chance of any move on key interest rates just yet, updated economic forecasts are likely to show yet another upward revision to the inflation outlook.
March 2, 2022
February employment looks to hold few surprises
The February Employment Situation will be released at 8:30 ET on Friday, March 4. This report will be compiled from data collected for payroll periods that include February 12. With the holiday shopping season well over and only one Federal holiday in February, calendar effects are likely to be minimal. There was no net change in the number of workers on strike in the February reference period, so that won’t distort the data.
March 1, 2022
Global Update – The fallout from Russia’s invasion
The announcement by the Western allies of a wave of unprecedented sanctions has ratcheted up the potential global economic and financial fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Regionally, the impact will vary but one way or another, economies around the world will all be affected. Terry Sheehan, Max Sato and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the implications.
February 22, 2022
Contrary winds for consumer spending in first quarter 2022
It may be a little tough to parse out the state of consumer spending in the first quarter of 2022. It will definitely be hard to assess spending based on a single month’s data. There are a number of things to keep in mind that are going to make the month-to-month changes volatile and the year-over-year comparisons unequal.
February 15, 2022
Geopolitics, the economy and financial markets
As diplomats strive to ease tensions on the Russia-Ukraine border, some investors are searching for safety. Amidst all the speculation about higher interest rates, the outlook for global growth, inflation and monetary policy could yet suddenly become much more clouded. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the potential effects should war break out.
February 14, 2022
Fed Board nominations in the works
Let’s update how things stand for the nominees for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors to the open terms and for the nominees for chair, vice chair, and vice chair for supervision. The Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to decide on February 15 which nominations will get a recommendation and be moved to a vote before the full Senate.
February 8, 2022
Falling further behind the curve
As the Fed heads towards its first interest rate hike next month, many other central banks are also nowhere close to keeping up with market expectations for higher borrowing costs. Moreover, upcoming economic data look likely to exacerbate investor worries that monetary policy is being tightened too slowly. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look at the risks.
February 2, 2022
Forecasting January payrolls can be highly uncertain
US employment numbers for the month of January can be some of the most difficult to forecast. The current consensus for nonfarm payrolls among Econoday’s panel is a rise of 200,000, but the gap between low and high estimates is huge: from down 400,000 to up 280,000. What is going on here?
February 1, 2022
February ECB meeting preview: Watching from the sidelines
Having already laid out its 2022 policy plans at the December meeting, Thursday’s ECB announcement is unlikely to contain any real surprises. Key interest rates will remain on hold (refi rate 0.00 percent, deposit rate minus 0.50 percent) and moreover, if Chief Economist Philip Lane is correct, will be held at current levels over the rest of the year. With regard to QE, the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) is now being run down and will finish at the end of this quarter.
January 31, 2022
February BoE MPC Preview: The second turn of the screw
For a second month in a row, the BoE MPC surprised financial markets with its policy decision in December. Having failed to deliver the widely anticipated tightening in November when an updated Monetary Policy Report (MPR) was hot off the press, the central bank unexpectedly voted 8-1 to raise Bank Rate at its year-end meeting despite the absence of new economic forecasts and only limited fresh data.
January 25, 2022
Podcast – A diminished appetite for risk
The impending double whammy of higher interest rates and the end of QE combined with the political crisis in Ukraine is prompting a flight to safely. Central banks will need to tread very carefully at upcoming policy meetings if investor sentiment is not to be further undermined. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.
January 19, 2022
Is accelerated tapering in store for the January FOMC?
Could 2022 start off with an abrupt end to asset purchases? The Fed began to taper its purchases back in November, down from $120 billion per month (a pace set early in the pandemic) to $105 billion in November and $90 billion in December. These $15 billion tapering increments were then doubled to $30 billion in January to reduce purchases to $60 billion per month, a pace that, if unchanged, would wind up tapering by the end of March.
January 14, 2022
A diverse Biden Fed taking form
The nomination hearings for Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chair and Governor Lael Brainard to a four-year term as vice chair are out of the way. It will take a couple of weeks for written responses to questions posed by Senate Banking Committee members to be delivered and considered, but it’s likely that both will receive a recommendation by the committee in fairly short order and a vote before the full Senate.
January 11, 2022
Podcast – Financial markets and the spectre of Fed QT
December’s FOMC minutes have left investors contemplating a surprisingly early shift by the Fed towards quantitative tightening at a time when other central banks are already trimming their own asset purchases. Reduced demand and rising interest rates could see bond yields move significantly higher despite the likelihood of lower inflation in 2022. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.
January 5, 2022
Podcast – What to watch in 2022
Following a tumultuous time for global economies and financial markets alike last year, the Econoday team look at some of the issues most likely to shape global investor sentiment in 2022.
December 28, 2021
FOMC composition still unfolding; how hawkish will it be?
The final FOMC meeting of 2021 is in the rear view mirror. It is clear that the Federal Reserve intends to swiftly wind down its asset purchases – likely by the end of first-quarter 2022 – and is preparing to lift short-term rates off the effective lower bound. Now attention will shift to a longer policy horizon and issues of when and how the Fed might start to reduce the size of its balance sheet. While policymakers will do some preliminary thinking, there’s a fair distance to go before they get there. In part, the timing will depend on just how hawkish the composition of FOMC voters is.
December 16, 2021
Podcast – Central bank round-up – what they did and what it means
Following a raft of central bank announcements on Wednesday and today, Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what the policymakers did and what it all means for financial markets in 2022.
December 14, 2021
Podcast – A more aggressive Fed and ‘Super Thursday’
It’s a big week for investors with the Fed expected to step up the pace of QE tapering on Wednesday ahead of what should be very different policy announcements from the SNB, BoE, ECB and BoJ (EST) all on ‘Super Thursday’. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the key issues facing the decision-makers.
December 14, 2021
December BoE MPC Preview: An Omicron conundrum
To say that the BoE MPC’s November decision came as a surprise to financial markets would be to put it mildly. A succession of hawkish comments from the central bank in the run-up to the announcement had left investors convinced that a hike in Bank Rate of at least 15 basis points was a done deal.
December 13, 2021
ECB December meeting preview: The push for a new PEPP
Thursday’s ECB announcement will be dissected not so much for what it has to say about what happens to monetary policy now, but rather for clues about the central bank’s plans for next year.
December 13, 2021
SNB preview December 2021: Struggling against the speculators
Thursday’s SNB Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA) is widely expected to produce another vote for no change. Since the September meeting, inflation has crept back above the 1 percent mark but remains low and well short of the near-2 percent mark favoured by the Swiss central bank.
December 7, 2021
Podcast – An Omicron spanner in the works?
Just when it seemed that the outlook for central bank policy was getting a little clearer, the arrival of the Omicron variant has cast a fresh cloud over the speed and extent to which QE and/or interest rates might be adjusted. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.
November 16, 2021
Podcast – Surging inflation boosts the dollar
U.S. inflation continues to climb and with it, so does speculation about early Fed tightening. With yield spreads likely to widen in the currency’s favour, October’s shock CPI report could open the door to a significantly stronger dollar that, in turn, would provide an additional unwelcome lift to prices overseas. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest developments.
November 15, 2021
Empire State, Tsy yields jump; US retail sales seen strong
US stocks were mixed but not Treasury yields which rose sharply Monday. A very heated Empire State manufacturing index headed Monday’s economic news, jumping 11.1 points to 30.9 or more than 8 points above Econoday’s consensus and nearly 6 points above the consensus range.
November 11, 2021
Shifting chairs at the Fed; Quarles resigns, Brainard and Powell in play
There are two issues to keep in mind with this week’s resignation of Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles: 1) the 14-year terms of governors; 2) the 4-year terms of chair, vice chair, and vice chair for supervision. All three chairs are or may soon be open.
November 10, 2021
Podcast – Policy communication and central bank credibility
Financial markets have become used to being forewarned by central banks about prospective changes to monetary policy. However, when such decisions are split, clear communication becomes much harder. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss last week’s announcements and how the Fed got it right and the BoE got it wrong.
November 2, 2021
Podcast – The turn in the policy cycle
With inflation increasingly pulling the monetary policy strings, the Federal Reserve this week is expected to launch its QE tapering plan while the Bank of England becomes the first of the G10 central banks to actually raise its benchmark interest rate. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the outlook for monetary policy in the context of the latest and upcoming key economic data.
November 2, 2021
November BoE MPC Preview: The first turn of the monetary policy screw
In sharp contrast to September’s BoE MPC meeting, financial markets now seem convinced that Bank Rate will be hiked at least once, if not twice, before the end of the year. Indeed, the market consensus is a 15 basis point increase to 0.25 percent at this week’s announcement which, if correct, would be the first time that the UK central bank has raised its key interest rate since August 2018. Adding to the chances of a move Thursday will be a new Monetary Policy Report that typically provides the fundamental justification for any change in policy.
October 25, 2021
October ECB meeting preview: Balancing policy is getting more complicated
A steady policy stance is the strong market consensus for Thursday’s ECB announcement. At the September meeting the central bank indicated that it would be trimming asset purchases made under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) and President Lagarde indicated that any other changes would be unlikely before December when the next set of updated economic forecasts is due. However, since last month’s gathering, inflation has risen further above target to the angst of the Governing Council’s hawks and sharply higher bond yields have negatively impacted financing conditions. As such, even if the main policy levers remain on hold, it will be interesting to hear how the monetary authority interprets recent developments in general and what it now thinks about the inflation outlook in particular.
October 20, 2021
Podcast – Not so transitory inflation
By and large, central bankers around the world now seem to accept that high inflation will last longer than originally expected. Most still seem to expect a return to more normal rates in 2022 but the recent sharp jump in energy costs has pulled forward many investors’ view of monetary tightening. Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, this week’s global podcast considers the tricky decisions facing the policymakers.
October 12, 2021
Podcast – Fed to taper but BoE may hike first
The Fed still looks poised to begin tapering next month but building inflation worries mean that it could be the BoE that’s first to pull the trigger on interest rates. However, most central banks will need to be careful not to tighten prematurely as higher borrowing costs will do nothing to reduce supply shortfalls which remain instrumental to rising prices in general. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at these and the other key issues impacting financial markets this week.
October 5, 2021
Podcast – The Fed’s payroll path to tapering
Friday’s U.S. employment report is widely seen as the key that could unlock the door to Fed tapering. However, payrolls will still need to be strong, at least to a degree, or November’s FOMC meeting might yet turn out to be a damp squib. Mark Pender and Jeremy Hawkins look at what’s expected and discuss the other potential market-moving data and events this week.
September 29, 2021
Podcast – Financial markets are tightening by themselves
By and large, central banks remain reluctant to tighten without clear signs that rising inflation is more than just transitory. However, financial markets seem to have reached that conclusion already and sharply rising bond yields now threaten to dent global recovery prospects despite key interest rates in many countries still being on hold. The team discuss all the latest development in this month’s global podcast.
September 22, 2021
Podcast – Fed toes tapering as other central banks stand pat
Earlier today the FOMC indicated that it will soon begin the, potentially protracted, process of normalising U.S. monetary policy. By contrast, on Tuesday the Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China signaled that they are in no rush to follow suit and both the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England are also seen holding steady on Thursday. Either economic cycles are now moving out of sync or at least one central bank has got it wrong.
September 21, 2021
September BoE MPC Preview: Stuttering towards stagflation?
Expectations going into Thursday’s BoE MPC announcement are quite muted. Ahead of the August discussions there was significant speculation that the combination of a strong economic recovery and accelerating inflation would force the premature termination of the QE programme. However, as it turned out, no such decision was made and the only really new information provided at that meeting concerned the more longer-term exit strategy.
September 20, 2021
SNB preview September 2021: Focusing on the franc
Another largely uneventful Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA) is expected from the SNB this week. Inflation has accelerated since the June MPA but remains uncomfortably low and the central bank has been obliged to intervene in the FX markets to prevent a renewed strengthening of the Swiss franc.
September 14, 2021
Podcast – Tapering the taper and what’s happening to inflation
Covid has already forced a number of central banks to take their foot off the QE tapering pedal and this week we’ll get an update on how much of a boost the virus is giving to consumer prices. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins focus on the latest inflation developments and consider just how transitory current above target rates might be.
September 7, 2021
September ECB meeting preview: Covid and the cracks in policy
With official interest rates still pegged at record lows and apparently seen to be at their effective lower bound (ELB), financial markets will again be focusing on what Thursday’s ECB announcement has to say about QE.
August 25, 2021
Podcast – Fed tapering would mask slowing global growth
Sub-zero readings on many of Econoday’s economic consensus divergence indices (ECDIs) confirm an unexpectedly large hit to global activity rates from the Delta variant. Price pressures may be easing slightly but the combination of slowing growth and above target inflation poses a real problem for policymakers. The team discuss the latest developments and their implications for policy in this month’s global podcast.
August 17, 2021
Podcast – RBNZ tightening in doubt as Covid clouds the global recovery
An interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand looked nailed on today but Covid developments may now dictate otherwise. In any event, a tightening there would be an outlier. Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss the latest global economic developments that suggest policy rates elsewhere are still going nowhere in a hurry.
August 10, 2021
Podcast – QT creep and Europe’s production woes
Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins discuss what a strong July employment report means for U.S. growth prospects and the Fed and what the BoE’s revised plans for unwinding QE (QT) mean for UK monetary policy. The Eurozone’s struggling goods production sector is also in the spotlight.
August 4, 2021
Podcast – US payrolls preview and the BoE’s QE call
Terry Sheehan and Jeremy Hawkins look ahead to Friday’s U.S. employment report and discuss more general recovery prospects in the context of raw material shortages, the spreading Delta variant and sharply rising consumer prices. Thursday’s BoE MPC meeting and the possibility of an early end to QE as well as future potential changes at the Fed are also in focus.
August 2, 2021
August BoE MPC Preview: Bye, bye QE?
The August MPC announcement promises to be one of the more important in a while. In line with many other central banks, the UK monetary authority has watched domestic inflation rise while maintaining that the acceleration would be just temporary and attributable to a range of one-off factors.
July 26, 2021
Eurozone ECDI Update: Mind the gap
At any point in time, Econoday’s economic consensus divergence index (ECDI) provides a very handy snapshot of how an economy is performing relative to market expectations, a key factor helping to shape investor sentiment and hence, determine where asset prices might be headed.
July 20, 2021
Podcast – Central bank forward guidance and the delta factor
The combination of the rapidly spreading Delta variant and some slightly less dovish sounding central banks is giving stock market investors pause for thought. Jeremy Hawkins looks ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and considers whether the central bank can bolster confidence in a non-inflationary economic recovery in Europe.
July 20, 2021
July ECB meeting preview: Seeking forward guidance
July 14, 2021
Podcast – Central bank cycles moving out of synch
While the Fed continues to play the long game, some central banks are moving more quickly towards policy normalization. Our panel also discusses tie-ups that are constraining global production and demographic changes tied to Covid, affecting auto and housing demand.
June 15, 2021
SNB preview June 2021: Steady-as-she-goes
June 8, 2021
June ECB meeting preview: Tapering without tears?
June 1, 2021
Podcast – Demand soaring but inflation mixed; Covid reopenings uneven
Global demand continues to recover more quickly than output which remains restrained by shortages of raw materials. For many countries the growth gap has yet to drive up final product prices but an exception may be the US where prices are indeed jumping as the country benefits from an early reopening that has yet to unfold in many other economies.
May 4, 2021
May BoE MPC Preview: Time to taper?
April 20, 2021
April ECB meeting preview: The policy problems ahead
March 23, 2021
SNB preview March 2021: Falling franc means a stable policy
March 16, 2021
March BoE MPC Preview: Light at the end of the Covid tunnel
March 9, 2021
March ECB meeting preview: The battle over bonds
February 2, 2021
February BoE MPC Preview: Positive or negative?
January 19, 2021
January ECB meeting preview: New year, same problems
December 15, 2020
December BoE MPC Preview: Preparing for the worst
December 14, 2020
SNB preview December 2020: Ending the year as it began
December 8, 2020
December ECB meeting preview: Easing into 2021
November 3, 2020
November BoE MPC Preview: Battling a double-dip recession
October 26, 2020
October ECB meeting preview: Priming the pump
September 22, 2020
SNB preview September 2020: Coronavirus and the currency
September 15, 2020
September BoE MPC Preview: Unemployment – the lull before the storm
September 8, 2020
September ECB meeting preview: Pressure to prime the PEPP
August 4, 2020
August BoE MPC Preview: Counting the cost of Covid-19
July 14, 2020
July ECB meeting preview: Time to assess the damage
May 4, 2020
Major Revision of UK Gilt Issuance Calendar
April 13, 2020
Germany COVID-19 Issuance expansion
April 6, 2020
UK Covid-19 Gilt auctions
December 15, 2019
Econoday Releases Premium Economic Event Subscription Platform
October 17, 2019
Econoday Teams with Mace News To Add Coverage of Fed Events
September 26, 2019
Econoday Sponsoring FILS in Barcelona Spain, October 7-9.
August 15, 2019
Are you keeping up with Sovereign Debt Auctions?
April 15, 2019
Analysis: 6-month Article 50 Brexit extension
How are you keeping up with sovereign debt auctions?
July 26, 2018
Wendy Elwell named Chairman of the Board
Econoday names Michael Milmoe as its president – RIABiz