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Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy As expected, the Bank of Canada cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.50 percent Wednesday, citing a “weaker economy and less upside risk to inflation.” In his statement, Governor Tiff Macklem cited three developments that have shifted the balance of risks…

The complexion of the September 16-17 FOMC meeting changes with two developments. First is the unusually swift confirmation of Stephen Miran as a Fed governor and his swearing in that took place before the meeting began on Tuesday. Miran is appointed to complete the term ending January 31, 2026 that was vacated early by Adriana…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The ECB’s Governing Council pressed pause on policy, keeping its three key rates unchanged at 2.00 percent (deposit), 2.15 percent (refinancing), and 2.40 percent (lending). Inflation, now hovering near the 2 percent medium-term target, remains the anchor for policy strategy. Updated staff projections point to…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee has reduced the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent, in line with the consensus forecast. Officials have lowered policy rates by a cumulative 250 basis points over their previous eight meetings after…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its main policy rate, the cash rate, by 25 basis points from 3.85 percent to 3.60 percent at its meeting today, in line with the consensus forecast. This rate was left on hold at the RBA’s previous meeting in…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy In a finely balanced 5–4 decision, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee opted to cut the Bank Rate to 4 percent, signaling cautious optimism in the disinflation journey. This move reflects a growing belief that the worst of inflation may be behind, even as…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The Bank of Canada left its target interest rate unchanged at 2.75 percent for the third consecutive meeting, as expected by forecasters in an Econoday survey. The central bank cited the resilience of the Canadian economy and ongoing pressures on core inflation, adding it continues…

Last Week: Key Global Events Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The European Central Bank held interest rates steady in July, signaling cautious confidence in its inflation-control strategy. With inflation now at the 2 percent medium-term target, the ECB opted to maintain the deposit, refinancing, and lending rates at 2.00 percent,…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Inflation June’s warm US inflation data could be the start of the expected inflationary effects of higher tariffs (predicted to hit from mid-2025 onwards). This will bolster the Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see stance as it assesses if this report does mark the beginning of a broad and sustained…

A look at the six-month percent change in the CPI at the end of the second half of 2025 firms up expectations that the FOMC won’t change its mind about inflation remaining “somewhat elevated” as a reason to keep the fed funds target rate range at 4.25-4.50 percent. In fact, the pace of consumer price…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The Reserve Bank of Australia left its main policy rate, the cash rate, on hold at 3.85 percent at its policy meeting. This decision was a surprise, with the consensus expecting a second consecutive reduction of 25 basis points. In the statement accompanying the decision,…

In the July and August period, several states hold sales tax holidays on back-to-school items like clothing, office supplies, and personal electronics. Although state governments aren’t fond of losing tax revenues, businesses like to take the opportunity to boost sales while consumers can maximize their dollars. Although the tax holidays are mostly intended for households…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Inflation Canada’s Consumer Price Index was up 0.6 percent in May from April, coming in at the high end of expectations in an Econoday survey of forecasters that had centered on a 0.5 percent increase. The 12-month inflation rate remained stable at 1.7 percent, as expected. Excluding…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy All of the key decisions and assessments by the Bank of Japan board were widely expected: –The BOJ nine-member board voted unanimously to maintain the target for the overnight interest rate at 0.5% for the third straight meeting after hiking it by 25 basis points…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Inflation China’s headline producer price index fell 3.3 percent on the year in May, weakening further from the 2.7 percent decline recorded in April. Headline PPI inflation has been in negative territory since late 2022 and this is the biggest year-over-year decline since July 2023. The index…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy As expected, the European Central Bank cut its main policy rates by 25 basis points, indicating that it’s satisfied with the current level of inflation which is around the ECB’s 2.0 percent intermediate term target. It lowered its forecasts for inflation forecasts by 0.3 percentage…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Inflation Germany’s inflation rate in May 2025 shows signs of moderation, with the consumer price index rising by 2.1 percent year-over-year, in line with the consensus, which suggests relative price stability compared to the heightened inflation seen in previous years. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased only…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its main policy rate, the cash rate, by 25 basis points from 4.10 percent to 3.85 percent at its meeting today, in line with the consensus forecast. This rate was left on hold at the RBA’s previous meeting in…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Inflation The US Consumer Price Index in April rebounded by 0.2 percent, following a 0.1 percent decline in March, and a 0.2 percent jump in February. This compares to expectations for a 0.3 percent rise in the Econoday survey of forecasters. The slowdown in the pace of…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy As expected, the US FOMC left the fed funds target rate range at 4.25 to 4.50 percent at the end of the May 6-7 meeting. The post-meeting statement highlights the increased uncertainty and risks to the economic outlook, although the assessment of current economy activity…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The Bank of Japan’s nine-member board voted unanimously to maintain the target for overnight interest rate at 0.5%, as widely expected, amid high uncertainty over global growth and inflation sparked by stiff Trump tariffs, after having stood pat in March. Previously, the panel voted 8…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Demand UK retail sales in March 2025 sustained a positive momentum, marking the third consecutive monthly rise with a 0.4 percent increase in volumes, 0.8 percentage points ahead of the consensus forecast. Over the year, retail sales rose 2.6 percent and 0.6 percent ahead of the forecast.…

Inflation expectations continue to rise in April as businesses and consumers navigate the choppy waters of the Trump administration’s tariff policy. The reversals of policy probably mean that some of the anticipation of higher prices will ebb in the near future, although it is unclear whether the unease about increased costs will dissipate quickly. Fed…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy The Bank of Canada, as expected, left its target interest rate unchanged at 2.75 percent, as the central bank adopts a more cautious posture in the face of heightened risks to both its inflation mandate and the Canadian economic from the punitive tariffs imposed by…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Chinese Inflation China’s headline consumer price index fell 0.1 percent on the year in March after dropping 0.7 percent in February and fell 0.4 percent on the month after a previous decline of 0.2 percent. Food prices fell 1.4 percent on the year, partly offset by an…

The US economy is experiencing a variety of shocks coming out of rapid and massive alterations in government at the federal level, sweeping changes to trade and tariff policy, and dislocations in previously allocated federal dollars along with renewing tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans. In the current environment, consumer and business uncertainty are elevated.…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Inflation Year-over-year, Germany’s inflation rate in March is estimated to decelerate to 2.2 percent from 2.3 percent the previous month, indicating a continued easing of price pressures compared to the higher inflation peaks of recent years. On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.3 percent, suggesting…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Inflation The latest UK inflation report reveals a slight easing in price pressures, with the consumer price index rising by 2.8 percent in February on a year-over-year basis, down from 3.0 percent in January and 0.1 percentage points below the consensus. This easing is primarily driven by…

There are two special factors to keep in mind for consumer spending in March and April. The two roll around at this time every year but are particularly acute in 2025. The first is the timing of the spring holidays. In particular, the Easter observance falls nearly three weeks later in 2025 than it did…

The Economy Monetary policy   The Bank of Japan’s nine-member board voted unanimously to maintain the target for overnight interest rate at 0.5%, as widely expected, after voting 8 to 1 to raise the policy rate by another 25 basis points to 0.5% in January in a third rate hike during the current normalization process…

In May 2022, the FOMC announced a program to reduce the size of its holdings of US treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities which had ballooned to just over $8.5 trillion in May 2022 at the end of its fourth large scale asset purchases undertaken to support the US economy from the shocks of the global…

The Trump administration on Monday nominated Fed Governor Michelle Bowman as the next Federal Reserve vice chair for Supervision. Her nomination is likely to proceed with speed and her confirmation is virtually assured. Governor Michael Barr vacated the spot for the vice chair for supervision as of February 28, 2025, although his term as government…

The Economy Monetary policy   The Bank of Canada, as expected in the Econoday consensus forecast, again cut its target interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.0 percent to 2.75 percent, as the central bank shifts its attention to protecting against the drag on economic activity from punitive tariffs imposed by the United States.…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy   The European Central Bank has delivered another interest rate cut in 2025, lowering all three key rates by 25 basis points. The decision reflects confidence in the disinflation process, with headline inflation projected to ease to 2.3 percent in 2025 before aligning with the…

The 2025 tax filing season for tax year 2024 opened on January 27 and will run through April 15. This is the normal length of a tax season of about 11-12 weeks. The IRS filing season statistics show that the pace of filling in the first four weeks of the season is slower than the…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy   The Bank of Korea lowered its main policy rate by 25 basis points from 3.00 percent to 2.75 percent at its policy meeting, in line with the consensus forecast. This is the third rate cut in the last four meetings. Policy rates have been…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist The Economy Monetary policy   The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its main policy rate, the cash rate, by 25 basis points from 4.35 percent to 4.10 percent at its meeting today, in line with the consensus forecast. This is the first reduction in the rate since 2020 and…

The economic data calendar in February presents some challenges in interpreting the scheduled reports. Data for December and January will not encompass more recent developments. Moreover, the January numbers could be affected by the severe cold and winter storms that disrupted some activity. In a rapidly altering geopolitical climate, businesses and consumers are facing higher…

Edited by Simisola Fagbola, Econoday Economist Here are the key economic indicators and events in the week past. The Economy Inflation The Consumer Price Index in January jumped 0.5 percent, following a 0.4 percent increase in December, and a 0.3 percent rise in November. This compares to expectations for a 0.3 percent rise in the…

  Information Publishing Limited Acquires Econoday, Inc., Expanding Its U.S. Footprint in Economic Data     London/San Francisco: February 12, 2025 –  Information Publishing Limited (IPL), an investment holding company known for its strategic investments in the capital markets and data software sector, is pleased to announce the acquisition of Econonday, Inc. (Econoday), a provider of…

After the release of the annual revisions and January payroll numbers on Friday, February 7, interest will shift to the price stability side of the Fed’s dual mandate. At the moment the labor market looks solid and an unemployment rate of 4.0 percent is consistent with maximum employment. The BLS will release the annual revisions…

The big macro news event on the calendar this week is the January employment report due Friday, which will help the Federal Reserve assess the economic outlook after its widely-expected decision to hold rates steady on January 29. Forecasters expect bad weather during January depressed payrolls and other economic activity during the month. Of course,…

The presence of the January FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday puts most of the economic data in the shade. After the chilly tone to the FOMC statement and forecasts out of the December 17-18 meeting, expectations for a rate cut this week are practically nonexistent. When the meeting statement is released at 14:00 ET…

With the first FOMC meeting of 2025 on the near horizon — January 28-29 – Fed policymakers are going to be carefully parsing the available data on inflation and inflation expectations. The FOMC will only have the CPI and PPI for December in hand since the PCE deflator for December won’t be reported until Friday,…

The January 20 week starts off with a federal holiday and full market close on Monday. It is both the day of the M.L. King, Jr. birthday observance and inauguration day for President-elect Trump. Disruptions to the economic data release schedule will be minimal. The schedule is thin for the week with little potential to…

The IRS has announced that the 2025 tax filling season for tax year 2024 will open on Monday, January 27. The tax deadline is Tuesday, April 15. The late start of the 2025 tax filing season means there will be 78 days, or about 11 weeks to file. There are no adjustments to the filing…

There are three reports in the January 13 week that are likely to stand out, especially in the context of the upcoming FOMC meeting on January 28-29. The numbers available for the labor market through December suggest that the maximum employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate is in good shape. Relatively little layoff activity…

On Monday, January 6, the Fed announced that Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr is stepping down from that appointment but will remain on the Board of Governors. Barr was confirmed as a Governor on July 19, 2022 to an unexpired term through January 31, 2032. He was confirmed to a four-year term as Vice…

Activity begins to pick up again after the holiday period. The focus will shift to the upcoming data reports on the labor market and inflation, and how these will affect the outlook for monetary policy. The minutes of the December 17-18 FOMC meeting are set for release at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. Given that there…

The New Year’s Day observance sits in the middle of the December 30 week. This means some disruptions to normal release patterns. There is an early close for bond markets on Tuesday, and a full close for both stocks and bonds on Wednesday. The data release calendar is light and does not include a lot…

With Christmas, Hanukkah, and other holiday observances dominating the calendar for the next two weeks, there is very little on the US economic data schedule that will demand attention. Most of the numbers will put the final touches on perceptions of economic conditions as the fourth quarter 2024 draws to a close. Most notable will…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) edged up to exactly zero last week, showing recent global economic activity matching market forecasts. However, within the mix, China continues to underperform alongside Canada and Switzerland and the Eurozone is only just about on track. By contrast, the U.S. is still running marginally hotter than expected and Japan…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) closed out last week at minus 4. While not significantly below zero, this extended its unbroken run of sub-zero readings to three weeks and, with the RPI-P at minus 13, helped to justify the latest round of central bank interest rate cuts. Japan is now slightly outperforming while the…

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday in the December 16 week with the FOMC statement and update to the quarterly summary of economic projections (SEP) expected at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. Chair Jerome Powell will follow with his press conference at 14:30 ET on Wednesday. Markets widely expect a 25-basis point decrease in the…

The European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to cut its key deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points at Thursday’s announcement, bringing the rate to 3.00 percent. This aligns with the ECB’s broader strategy to achieve its 2 percent inflation target amidst weakening economic growth in the Eurozone. Current inflation stands at 2.3 percent, marginally above…

The economic picture facing the SNB as it prepares for December’s Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA) is little changed from that at the time of the September report. Indeed, inflation has fallen even further and is threatening to slide back below zero, the domestic economy remains sluggish and an already uncomfortably strong Swiss franc has continued…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) slipped further below zero last week. At minus 16, the latest reading shows recent global activity struggling to keep up with market forecasts. The U.S. and Canada are essentially matching expectations but China, the Eurozone, Japan, and the UK are all falling short. In the U.S., the key November…

The December 9 week does not have a busy data schedule, but it does include the November CPI report at 8:30 ET on Wednesday. This is one of the last reports that could mean an adjustment to the outlook for the outcome of the FOMC meeting on December 17-18 and the content of the quarterly…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) lost some ground last week and, at minus 10, shows recent global activity running a little cooler than expected. The dip mainly reflects a switch to modest downside surprises in the U.S. data but the Eurozone, UK and Japan are also underperforming by varying degrees. China is still matching…

The December 2 week will start off with a lot of recaps of conditions for retailers over the Thanksgiving weekend and running interest in how Cyber Monday looks for the winter holiday sales period. Retailers at both brick-and-mortar stores and e-commerce sites have been heavily advertising deals and discounts well in advance of Black Friday,…

The November 25 week includes the official US Thanksgiving observance on Thursday and the unofficial holiday of Black Friday the day after. Many businesses give their workers a four-day weekend by shifting time off from Veterans Day to Black Friday. Where that isn’t the case, workers who have leave take time off. This is an…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) ended the week at minus 3, indicating that recent global activity has behaved much as forecast. The U.S. continues to lead the pack ahead of Canada, but while China and Japan have offered few surprises, underperformance by the Eurozone and the UK has become more marked. In the U.S.,…

The economic data calendar in the November 18 week is a light one. The focus of the week will probably be on the housing numbers which include the NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index at 10:00 ET on Monday, data on housing starts and building permits issued at 8:30 ET on Tuesday, and the NAR report…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) lost some ground last week but, at 8, still shows global economic activity running a little ahead of market forecasts. The U.S., Eurozone and Japan are all modestly outperforming expectations while the UK, Canada and Switzerland struggle to keep up. In the U.S., October inflation offered no surprises but…

Every October, the BLS releases information about the dollar value of quality changes for the upcoming model year for domestic passenger cars and light trucks – which includes SUVs, crossovers, and minivans. For 2025, the adjustment is modest. In the October data, the quality change for 2025 for passenger cars in the PPI averages $76.36.…

The outcome of last week’s U.S. presidential election was nowhere near as close as expected but does the result make for a more predictable outlook for the global economy and financial markets? The Econoday team discuss the implications.

For 2025, the lineup of policymakers that comprise the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) looks stable. The normal rotation of voting presidents of the district banks does not include anyone who will be retiring in 2025. Only Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker is coming up on mandatory retirement in June 2025. The Philadelphia District does…

The November 11 week is shortened by the federal holiday on Monday to observe Veterans Day. It is a full market close in the US for bond markets. Not all businesses are closed; some will save the holiday time for November 29 to create a four-day weekend. The three-day weekend will be another mile marker…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) closed out last week at 30, showing global economic activity running quite well ahead of market forecasts. Although the U.S. index remained close to zero and its Canadian counterpart moved deeper into negative territory, the Eurozone and, in particular, China continued to outperform. In the U.S., the RPI and…

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75 percent on November 7, 2024, in light of easing inflationary pressures. Recent data shows UK inflation has dropped from 2.2 percent in August to 1.7 percent in September, prompting a shift from a restrictive…

There is nothing on the week’s data calendar that will distract from two big events. First, the US presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 5. Most predictions are for a close race that might not be completely settled until after localities count their absentee and provisional ballots. This could take several days. That…

Politics may dominate activity in financial markets this week but the data remain key to monetary policy and five major central banks will be making policy announcements. At 23, Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) shows recent global economic activity moving ahead of forecasts but only after almost three months of sustained underperformance. As such,…

While the Bureau of Labor Statistics doesn’t quantify the impact of major weather events on the monthly employment data, it is possible to tease out where some of those impacts may have occurred. Certain industries do tend to be associated with outdoor activity that could be affected, where supply chains may be disrupted, and where…

In the final full week before the presidential election on Tuesday, November 5, it may be hard for any single data report to break through the noise. However, there are two reports that should rise above the clamor. Any surprises to the up- or down-side will get politicized in on social media, but this should…

Moderate outperformance by the U.S. was mainly responsible for Econoday’s global Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) holding in positive surprise territory (7) last week. Economic activity in China, the Eurozone, Japan and Switzerland is now largely moving in line with market expectations while the UK disappoints. In the U.S., economic activity continues to outperform forecasts…

For the first time since early August and mainly due upside surprises out of China, Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) last week climbed back above zero. However, at just 4, the index only shows recent global economic activity broadly matching market forecasts. In the U.S., the latest data signal overall economic activity modestly outpacing…

It is a fairly light data release schedule in the October 21 week. Markets are likely to be jittery with the US presidential election on November 5 only about two weeks distant. Then there is the next FOMC meeting on November 6-7 (Wednesday-Thursday) and along with it expectations for another rate cut, albeit a smaller…

Immediately following September’s well-flagged ease, the ECB seemed happy to hold policy steady until December. However, with inflation having fallen below target last month and the real economy essentially flatlining, forecasters now anticipate a second successive 25 basis point cut in the deposit rate to 3.25 percent this week. That said, in contrast to the…

The traditional winter holiday shopping season is 2024 is a short 27 days compared to the average of 30 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Of course, the traditional winter holiday shopping season isn’t what it used to be. Stores have had Christmas décor on display since July alongside end-of-summer sales and Halloween merchandise. Many retailers…

The October 14 week begins with a federal holiday on Monday with the observance of Indigenous Peoples’/Columbus Day. However, this day is far from universally observed in the US. Bond markets will be closed, but the stock market will be open. Government offices will be closed, but most businesses will have their usual hours. Many…

Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) remained sub-zero last week. At minus 14, the current reading signals recent global economic activity slightly lagging despite limited positive contributions from the U.S., UK and Japan. With the notable exception of inflation, last week’s U.S. economic data were mainly a little softer than forecast. However, in terms of…

The highlight of the US economic data in the October 7 week will be the consumer price index (CPI) for September at 8:30 ET on Thursday. The report is expected to provide more evidence that upward price pressures continued to abate at the all-items level and are moving sustainably toward the Fed’s 2 percent inflation…

At minus 8, Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) continues to show recent global economic activity lagging market expectations, but not by much. China in particular remains a significant drag, but Eurozone readings have improved and the U.S. continues to outperform. In the U.S., a reminder of just how tight the labour market is kept…

On September 18 the FOMC lowered the fed funds target range by an aggressive 50 basis points to 4.75-5.00 percent, beginning the process of easing restrictive monetary policy put in place to combat inflation. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections forecast another 50 basis points of rate cuts in the remainder of 2024, essentially suggesting…

At the close of the third quarter 2024, all eyes will be on the employment report for September at 8:30 ET on Friday, October 4. The strike at Boeing which began on September 13 will not affect the September payrolls data in the BLS numbers. Workers were on payroll for most of the reference period…

Closing the week at minus 22, Econoday’s Relative Economic Performance Index (RPI) shows global economic activity continuing to fall somewhat short of market expectations. This is particularly true of China, where policy was eased significantly last week, and the Eurozone, where pressure for further interest rate cuts is steadily building. However, the U.S. is still…

Should the central bank see fit to ease at what would be a third successive Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA), there would seem to be few hurdles in the path of another cut in the SNB’s policy rate this week. Inflation remains low, the Swiss franc strong and domestic economic activity, at best, sluggish. In addition,…

Although there are plenty of reports on the economic data calendar in the September 23 week, none is likely to be a standout after the FOMC announced a rate cut of 50 basis points on September 18 to bring the fed funds target rate range down to 4.75 to 5.00 percent. Data related to the…

Fed policymakers will always say that no decision is made until they actually meet and consider all the most recent information available. However, they have strongly signaled that they are leaning toward cutting rates at the September 17-18 FOMC meeting. Absent a seismic event for the economy, there should be the first change in in…

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday amid universal expectations for the first rate cut since the current target range of 5.25-5.50 percent was set in July last year. What is not universal is the expected size of the cut. There are calls from Fed watchers for a 50-basis-point reduction due to perceived deceleration in…

Global economic data continue to underperform relative to forecasts. Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) fell 6 points in the week to minus 16 and edged a further 3 points lower to minus 20 less prices (RPI-P), the latter indicating that real economic activity has been, as it has for the last six weeks, subpar relative…

Investors are split on this month’s BoE MPC announcement but the majority call is for no change. The August reduction in Bank Rate to 5.0 percent only got through by the tightest of margins (5-4) with Chief Economist Huw Pill voting against the move and Governor Andrew Bailey stressing the need for careful easing going…

The average of the July-August CPI-W for 2024 indicates that the cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) for Social Security recipients will be about 2.4 percent when it goes into effect in January 2025. While the calculation for the increase is incomplete until the September CPI numbers are published on Thursday, October 10 at 8:30 ET, it would take…

Following July’s pause, the ECB is widely seen resuming its easing path this week. Falling inflation, a strengthening euro and an expected Federal Reserve rate cut next week provide all the scope needed while a still very sluggish economy offers plenty of justification. Although there may be some reluctance on the part of the hawks,…

The communications blackout period around the September 17-18 FOMC meeting is in effect (midnight, Saturday, September 7 through midnight, Thursday, September 19). If any Fed officials speak, it will not be about monetary policy. Even if it were not the blackout period, FOMC participants would probably say nothing to contradict expectations for a 25-basis point…

Global economic data have been consistently underperforming economist forecasts since the beginning of August, though only to a limited degree. Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) held unchanged in the week at minus 10, just within the low end of consensus ranges. When excluding prices (RPI-P) which have been coming in near estimates, the index falls…

The impact of a presidential race on consumer confidence is murky. Consumers’ perceptions of the world are more heavily influenced by the things that have an immediate impact on household budgets and planning. Who is to become president of the United States can feel a little more distant than if the price of gasoline is…

The September 2 week starts with the Labor Day observance on Monday with a full market close in the US for stocks and bonds. The data calendar will have a few shifts in the normal release schedule with the weekly MBA numbers on mortgage applications on Thursday instead of Wednesday, and the monthly ADP report…

Global economic data continue to underperform expectations, at minus 10 on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index and at minus 21 when excluding price data (RPI-P). The latter offers an indication on real economic activity which has been subpar for nearly the whole of August. But the Eurozone is outperforming and financial markets remain confident that the…

In the countdown to the September 17-18 FOMC meeting, the number of reports that might change the outlook for a rate cut are fewer. As of Friday, August 30, there is less room for a downside surprise in the data on inflation and inflation expectations. The PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer…

As the unofficial end of summer approaches with the Labor Day weekend (August 31-September 2), markets may not be particularly attentive to the economic data calendar. There is nothing on it likely to change the outlook for a 25-basis point cut in the fed funds target rate (currently 5.25-5.50 percent) at the September 17-18 meeting,…

Global data held steady in the underperformance column, ending the week at minus 8 on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) and at minus 21 when excluding price data (RPI-P), the latter indicating greater underperformance in real economic activity. In the Eurozone, economic activity continued to undershoot market forecasts and put the RPI at minus 18…

It may be making too much of out a single quote, but in the minutes of the July 30-31 FOMC meeting said, “Many participants noted that reported payroll gains might be overstated, and several assessed that payroll gains may be lower than those needed to keep the unemployment rate constant with a flat labor force…

Economic data in the August 19 week will take a backseat to the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole (August 22-24) which will be brimming with central bankers and offering an opportunity to gauge the outlook for less restrictive monetary policy. In particular, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to send a message to markets…

Global data edged a little bit deeper into the underperformance column, ending the week at minus 9 on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) and at minus 19 when excluding price data (RPI-P), the latter indicating greater underperformance in real economic activity. In the Eurozone, signs that economic activity was disappointingly sluggish last quarter saw the…

The dearth of economic data in the August 5 week gives way to a more compelling roster of economic data in the August 12 week. Concerns that the US economy is growing more slowly than previously thought could be confirmed or debunked. In any case, the data should reinforce expectations for the FOMC to cut…

Global data on net are posting near consensus estimates, at minus 7 and just below the zero line on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI). Yet when excluding what have been as-expected to firmer-than-expected inflation data, the index less prices (RPI-P) falls to minus 18 to indicate modest underperformance in economic activity. In China, unexpectedly firm…

As of the August 8 data, the Freddie Mac rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage rate is down 26 basis points to 6.47 percent from the prior week, reaching its lowest since 6.39 percent in the May 18, 2023 week. The rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage is down 36 basis points to 5.63…

The Fed’s senior loan officer opinion survey for July shows that on net, fewer banks are tightening lending standards for commercial and industrial lending. The increase in spreads of loan rates over banks’ cost of funds is lower for large and medium-sized firms and rising slightly for small firms. Loan demand is about the same…

The economic data calendar in the August 5 week is sparse and has little market moving potential. There will be plenty of time to think about the outcome of the July 30-31 FOMC meeting and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks, and about the implications for monetary policy from July employment report released on August 2. Expectations…

Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) for global indicators ended last week at minus 5 and at minus 7 less inflation (RPI-P). These readings are close to the zero line to indicate that, on net, data are coming in near enough to the consensus estimates but toward the lower end of consensus ranges. The much softer-than-expected…

Forecasters are very unsure about which way this month’s BoE MPC announcement will go but, on balance, seem to expect what would be the first cut in Bank Rate since March 2020. However, if so, it is likely to be a very close vote. June saw a relatively clear 7-2 split in favour of no…

Focus in the July 29 week will be narrowly fixed on two times: 14:00 ET on Wednesday when the FOMC releases its July 30-31 meeting statement and 8:30 ET on Friday when the July employment numbers are published. Markets are anticipating that the FOMC statement will set the stage for a rate cut in the…

Economists are nailing their forecasts based on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) which is sitting right at the zero line, at plus 2 to indicate only the most marginal outperformance relative to expectations. When excluding prices, the RPI-P is at plus 1 to indicate that global inflation forecasts are also dead on. At 16 on…

There are no Fed policymakers on the calendar due to the communications blackout period around the July 30-31 FOMC meeting. The period runs from midnight on Saturday, July 20 through midnight on Thursday, August 1. Expectations for the FOMC meeting are for no change in the fed funds target rate range but a signal that…

Econoday’s Relative Performance Index moved from slightly negative ground in the prior week to slightly positive ground last week, to plus 4 and to plus 8 less price data (RPI-P). Though more neutral than positive, the latest levels are the best since mid-May to indicate that results are now coming in above economic forecasts. In…

Having delivered the widely anticipated 25 basis point cut in key interest rates in June, the ECB is expected to leave policy unchanged at what will be its last meeting before the summer recess. Since the last gathering, inflation developments have been mixed and the euro has been volatile in the face of diminished easing…

Expectations are high that the FOMC will be cutting rates soon – perhaps at the September 17-18 meeting. Any economic data that would support that outlook will be welcome. The reports during the July 15 week will not do much to further what is known about inflation and the labor market, but they should help…

Global economic data came in a bit nearer to forecasts in the prior week, improving to minus 8 on the Relative Performance Index (RPI) and minus 11 less prices (RPI-P). These scores are only slightly negative and aren’t signaling any immediate bias for Econoday’s Global Policy Rate (a weighted average of major central banks) which…

One of the main themes of the July 2024 semiannual monetary policy testimony was the need for the Federal Reserve to remain an independent central bank against the not-so-subtle subtext that US central bankers need to stay out of the political fray. Fed Chair Jerome Powell voiced his certainty that Fed independence – along with…

There are two important questions for the July 8 week. The first is what will Fed Chair Jerome Powell say in his semiannual monetary policy testimony at 10:00 ET on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee? The second is will the June CPI at 8:30 ET on Thursday show disinflation continuing in the second quarter…

Global economic data have been missing expectations since the end of May, a sustained trend that points to central-bank rate cuts and a decline for Econoday’s Global Policy Rate (a weighted average of the major central banks) that currently stands at 4.29 percent. The global Relative Performance Index is at minus 16 and falls slightly…

The July 1 week includes the Independence Day observance on Thursday when there will be a full close of stock and bond markets in the US. The timing of the federal holiday will cause some shifts in the release calendar, but the monthly employment report will be released on Friday at 8:30 ET as usual.…

Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) ended the week at minus 8 to indicate that global economic data, on net, are coming in just on the low side of consensus estimates. This extends a month-long trend and is little changed from the prior week’s minus 9. Eurozone economic data are significantly underperforming, at minus 41 on…

Summer didn’t officially start until June 19, but for consumers the informal start is the Memorial Day weekend. That came a little earlier than usual on Monday, May 27. The softer performance of retail sales in the first two months of the second quarter is unlikely to improve much in June unless there is better-than-expected…

Economic data with market-moving potential is hard to find for the June 24 week. The calendar is not lacking in reports as the second quarter comes to a close. It is simply that most of the pivotal reports from May are already published and the next wave of data on the labor market and inflation…

Global activity has been tracking on the soft side of forecasts for the last month. Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) ended the week at minus 9 to indicate that global data, on net, are coming in at the low end of Econoday’s consensus ranges. This points to a bias for policy accommodation. Eurozone economic data…

Global economic data are coming in just below Econoday’s consensus medians, at minus 12 for the overall Relative Performance Index (RPI) and at minus 11 less prices (RPI-P). These readings have been little changed for the past month suggesting that the marginal bias to Econoday’s global policy rate, currently at a weighted average of 4.3…

The week contains the federal holiday of Juneteenth on Wednesday. While federal offices will be closed, private offices could be open in order to give their employees a four-day weekend around the Independence Day observance on Thursday, July 4. In any case, stock and bond markets will have a full close on Wednesday. The housing…

The SNB surprised financial markets with a 25 basis point cut in its policy rate to 1.50 percent in March so investors are all the more cautious going into this quarter’s Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA). In favour of another ease is inflation, which has remained well below 2 percent. Importantly too, earlier losses by the…

The BoE’s May MPC meeting saw Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden join long-term dove Swati Dhingra in calling for an immediate 25 basis point cut in interest rates. The other seven members all again opted for no change. Approaching this month’s meeting, there has been a further, but less than wholly convincing, decline in inflation, while…

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday of the June 10 week. The FOMC statement released at 14:00 ET on Wednesday will get a close read for any guidance in regard to the interest rate outlook. However, it is the summary of economic projections (SEP) that may be more informative. Markets will be looking for…

In the main, economic activity continues to fall slightly short of market expectations and was reflected last week in interest rate cuts from both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. The global RPI now stands at minus 5 and the RPI-P at minus 8. In a mixed week for the U.S. data,…

Investors and financial markets will be very surprised – and not at all happy – should Thursday’s ECB announcement not include the first cut in key interest rates since September 2019. With even the more hawkish Governing Council (GC) members having now adopted a notably more dovish line, recent central bank rhetoric has seemingly made…

The June 3 week focus will be firmly on labor market conditions and how these might affect the upcoming FOMC meeting on June 11-12. The monthly employment report for May is set for release at 8:30 ET on Friday. The change in nonfarm payrolls will be watched carefully to see if it disappoints or not…

The global Relative Performance Index (RPI) stands at minus 12 and at minus 21 less prices (RPI-P), the latter indicating that firmer-than-expected inflation reports are lifting the overall score. The US score, sagging since April’s lower-than-expected employment report, had been on the rebound but was set back in the latest week by the downgrade for…

Back at his March 20 post-FOMC meeting press brief, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that discussions regarding the program to reduce the Fed’s holdings of US treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities were well advance and would be made public “soon”. The minutes of the March 19-20 meeting offered some details. At the April 30-May 1 meeting,…

The May 27 week is shortened in the US by the Memorial Day observance on Monday. Reports normally released on Monday will be moved to Tuesday, and some Tuesday data to Wednesday. There isn’t a lot of market-moving potential in the week’s economic data calendar. The most looked at data will probably be the PCE…

Global economic data continue on net to come in very near expectations, at minus 3 for the Relative Performance Index and at minus 5 less prices (RPI-P). These readings suggest no jolts for Econoday’s Global Policy Rate which stands at 4.35 percent in a reading that tracks central-bank benchmarks from 12 major economies. Economic activity…

The high points for economic data in the May 20 week should be the sales numbers for new and existing homes for April. Gauging the health of the housing market may be a bit tricky in reading these reports. Seasonal adjustment factors for this time of year anticipate a busier sales period as potential homebuyers…

Econoday’s Relative Performance Index for the global economy moved a bit lower, ending the week at minus 7 and at minus 10 less inflation (RPI-P). The US, at minus 26 for the RPI and minus 39 for the RPI-P, is increasingly underperforming relative to expectations in a three-week slump that started with the April employment…

In the wake of the softer-than-expected payroll gains for April in the monthly employment report, the inflation data for April in the May 13 week become the next signpost for the outlook for Fed monetary policy. Markets reacted to the hint of softening in the labor market by anticipating easier financial conditions. However, it is…

Global economic data continue to come in very near expectations, at minus 3 for the Relative Performance Index and at plus 3 less prices (RPI-P). Though the outlook for monetary policy varies by region, on net the results point to a steady period for global interest rates. Overall economic activity in Eurozone had underperformed for…

With the next round of inflation reports on the near horizon, markets should be prepared for a disappointment that, following April’s employment report, may well erase the uptick in rate-cut expectations. The bottom line is that good prices are no longer on the downward trend that has powered the disinflation in the major inflation indicators.…

Recent comments from a number of MPC members have hinted that a cut in Bank Rate might not be too far away and possibly rather sooner than financial markets currently expect. However, apart from the leading dove, Swati Dhingra, most policymakers would still seem to favour waiting until there has been further progress on reducing…

The May 6 week presents a remarkably empty calendar for US economic data. This will leave plenty of time to speculate about the direction of Fed monetary policy after the downside surprise in the change in nonfarm payrolls with April coming in with a 175,000 increase and a net downward revision of 22,000 to the…

At minus 7, the Relative Performance Index (RPI) extended an improving trend and is now signaling that global economic data on net are nearly meeting economic forecasts. At minus 2, the index less prices (RPI-P) is almost at breakeven zero. In the UK, a mix of upside and downside surprises cancelled each other out to…

The two high points of the April 29 week are the FOMC meeting on Tuesday-Wednesday and the April employment report at 8:30 ET on Friday. For the former, no change in the fed funds target rate range of 5.25-5.50 percent is expected. For the latter, the outlook is for ongoing firmness in hiring and low…

At minus 14 and minus 9, both the Relative Performance Index and the index less prices (RPI-P) extended the prior week’s pattern of global underperformance, too limited, however, to sway expectations for monetary policy. In the Eurozone, the RPI (minus 13) and RPI-P (minus 12) remained in negative surprise territory. Economic activity looks to be…

While expectations are universal that the FOMC will remain on hold with interest rates at the April 30-May 1 meeting, there is a good possibility that it will elect to make an announcement about a change in balance sheet policy. At his March 20 press conference, Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the FOMC was prepared…

Federal Reserve policymakers will not be commenting on monetary policy this week since it falls within the communications blackout period that surrounds the April 30-May 1 FOMC meeting. Expectations for the meeting are consistent with no change in the fed funds target range of 5.25-5.50 percent that has been in place since July 2023. There…

Having consistently surprised on the upside over the last four weeks or so, global economic activity was weaker than forecast last week. That said, at minus 11 and minus 5 respectively, both the Relative Performance Index and the index less prices (RPI-P) only point to a very limited degree of underperformance. Moreover, regional trends continue…

The last economic data report that has the potential to change the tone of the upcoming FOMC meeting on April 30-May 1 is retail and food services sales at 8:30 ET on Monday. Sales were weaker in January and rose modestly in February. How the March number shapes consumer spending for the first quarter depends…

Global data on net are coming in right at expectations, at plus 1 and very near the zero line on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index. When excluding inflation, however, the index less prices (RPI-P) rises to 13 to indicate that inflation, on a global scale, is running cooler than expected and that real activity is running…

The three Fed district bank GDP nowcasts for the first quarter 2024 are fairly consistent in anticipating the advance estimate of real GDP set for release at 8:30 ET on Thursday, April 25. At 2-3 weeks from the release date, nowcasts tend to be set with little chance of much change. At this point the…

Market participants do not expect the ECB to lower key interest rates on Thursday. Since last month’s meeting, the Eurozone economy has gained some momentum but remains close to recession and inflation has fallen further. However, before delivering any full-blown ease the central bank will want to see June’s updated economic forecasts for confirmation that…

With the employment data out of the way and showing ongoing strength in the labor market through March, attention will turn to inflation numbers. The March consumer price index (CPI) at 8:30 ET on Wednesday is expected to show similar upward price pressure after February’s 0.4 percent month-over-month gain and 3.2 percent year-over-year rate. The…

Global data continue to exceed forecasts at 21 on the Relative Performance Index (RPI) and 26 less prices (RPI-P) to indicate tangible outperformance especially for the real economy. These results are a bit firmer than the prior week’s respective RPI and RPI-P scores of 16 and 21. China is now the center of the RPI’s…

The big question for the April 1 week relates to the underlying conditions for the US labor market. Will the change in nonfarm payrolls in March close out the first quarter 2024 at a continued strong pace and will the unemployment rate remain consistent with a tight labor market? Early forecasts for nonfarm payrolls in…

Global data are continuing to exceed forecasts ending last week at 16 on the Relative Performance Index (RPI) and rising a bit further to 21 when excluding price data (RPI-P) to indicate tangibly greater-than-expected strength in real activity. These results are only slightly less favorable than the prior week’s respective RPI and RPI-P scores of…

Few data reports are likely to be market movers in the March 25 week. Some of the data will close out early looks at conditions for the manufacturing and service sectors in the first quarter 2024. Some will take the temperature of consumers’ optimism – or pessimism – for March and hint at whether consumer…

Economic data proved much better than expected last week, lifting the global economy’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) to 23 for the best score since the outset of 2024. Inflation data aren’t skewing the results which hold at 26 less prices (RPI-P). Significant upside surprises in China’s data boosted this country’s RPI to 50 and the…

The consensus is no change but there is significant speculation that the SNB might announce a 25 basis point cut in its policy rate at Thursday’s Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA). Further falls in already low inflation combined with a strong Swiss franc would seem to have opened the door to what would be the first…

Forecasters are convinced that there will be no change in Bank Rate this week. At February’s announcement the MPC’s principal dove, Swati Dhingra, was the sole voice calling for a 25 basis point cut. She was easily outnumbered by the six members voting for no change and even by the two main hawks (Jonathan Haskell…

At the midpoint of the March 18 week is the release of the FOMC statement and summary of economic projections (SEP) at 14:00 ET on Wednesday followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press briefing at 14:30 ET. There’s nothing on the data calendar in the days before the FOMC deliberations that is likely to change the…

Econoday’s global Relative Performance Index (RPI) held unchanged in the week at a perfect zero score, perfect that is for Econoday’s consensus forecasts that on net are exactly matching actual outcomes. But there’s a separation at play between real economic activity which is missing forecasts and inflation which is exceeding forecasts. When excluding the latter,…

Improvement for both the US and China last week lifted the global Relative Performance Index (RPI) by 20 points to zero indicating that global data, on net, are exactly hitting Econoday’s consensus forecasts. When excluding prices (RPI-P), the index is very near zero at minus 2 to indicate that inflation outcomes are not swaying the…

The communications blackout period around the March 19-20 FOMC meeting goes into effect at midnight on Saturday, March 9 and runs through midnight on Thursday, March 21. Fed speakers will be absent from the public engagement calendar in the March 11 week. Markets will have to rely on any comments made by Fed policymakers in…

At the ECB’s January meeting, there was a unanimous decision to leave key interest rates on hold and forecasters anticipate the same neutral outcome this week. Thursday’s announcement is widely expected to leave the deposit rate at its 4.0 percent record high while the refi rate stays at 4.50 percent and the rate on the…

The March 4 week has two reports that are likely to inform the tone of the deliberations at the upcoming March 19-20 FOMC meeting. However, these will be overshadowed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming semiannual monetary policy testimony – what old hands still call the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Powell will appear before the House Financial…

The US has pulled down the Relative Performance Index (RPI) to minus 20 for global data overall and to minus 17 less prices (RPI-P). The downturn in the US RPI, which is now in sizable contraction at minus 38 and at minus 44 for the RPI-P, reflects both the rolling off strong earlier results in…

With the release of the January PCE deflator data, the overall inflation picture at the start of 2024 is one in which further progress on bringing inflation back to the Fed’s two percent flexible average inflation target will be a slow grind. The PCE deflator is the Fed’s preferred measure, but it isn’t the only…

Although there is a lot of data on the calendar for the February 26 week, those with market moving potential are few. Much of the data will complete a picture already forming. Although the week ends with the first Friday of the month on March 1, it is not an Employment Friday. The monthly employment…

The global economy is performing much as expected. However, a Relative Performance Index of 1 masks a significant divergence between the major regions which, in the main, has left financial markets more cautious about the likely pace of central bank easing in 2024. In the US, surprises in the economic data remained skewed to the…

Monday, February 19 is a federal holiday in the US but will have minimal impact on routine release schedules. Most of the economic data will take a backseat to the release of the minutes of the January 30-31 FOMC meeting at 14:00 on Wednesday. The minutes will be closely parsed to try to discern if…

Global economic data on net are coming in within consensus forecasts and near the breakeven zero-line for the Relative Performance Index (RPI), at minus 7 overall and minus 8 when excluding prices (RPI-P) to indicate only a marginal degree of underperformance. A surprising, and possibly spurious, year-end bounce in industrial production was largely responsible for…

January’s data on retail and food services spending proved disappointing, much of it due to a decline in unit motor vehicle sales and a dip in prices for gasoline. However, the softness was broad-based and sets 2024 off to a weak start for consumer spending after a solid performance in the fourth quarter 2024. But…

Data in the February 11 week will provide a look at some economic conditions in the first month or so of 2024. The two standouts are likely to be the January CPI data at 8:30 ET on Tuesday and monthly retail and food services sales for January at 8:30 on Thursday. There should not be…

Global economic data on net are coming in within consensus forecasts and near the breakeven line for the Relative Performance Index (RPI), at minus 9 overall and minus 10 when excluding prices (RPI-P) to indicate only a marginal bias of underperformance. In the Eurozone, steeper-than-expected falls in December retail sales and producer prices reduced the…

Annual revisions to 2023’s CPI data issued on February 9 hold no surprises, unlike the upward revision in 2022. The all-items CPI had some minor revisions for the October-December period, while the core CPI – excluding food and energy – is unrevised from the previous reports. The BLS revises the seasonal adjustment factors once a…

The FOMC meeting of January 30-31 concluded with no change in rates and a hawkishly optimistic outlook for the dual mandate as well as good progress on price stability and a tight labor market, but greater confidence needed before a rate cut. The big upside surprise in the January employment report offers another dimension to…

Global economic data on net are coming in very near Econoday’s consensus forecasts and very near the breakeven line for the Relative Performance Index (RPI), at minus 5 overall and minus 6 when excluding prices (RPI-P). Eurozone economic activity continues to perform much as expected despite an ongoing downside bias to the German data (RPI…

The next FOMC meeting will not be a nonevent, but mostly an opportunity to set up expectations for monetary policy in the coming year. Going into the January 30-31 FOMC meeting, the consensus is for no change in the fed funds rate target of 5.25 to 5.50 percent. The rate will be the same as…

While the BoE is widely seen lowering interest rates over coming months, there is a clear consensus expecting Thursday’s policy announcement to leave Bank Rate at 5.25 percent, the level to which it was raised back in August 2023. Despite its recent, and surprisingly sharp slowdown, inflation remains well above target and far too high…

The first FOMC meeting of 2024 is Tuesday and Wednesday, January 30-31. Fed policymakers are expected to hold the fed funds target rate at 5.25-5.50 percent, pausing in the current rate cycle for the fourth meeting in a row. The FOMC will not outright say that rates have peaked, but it is likely the case…

Global economic data are trending at the top end of the consensus ranges reflected in the Relative Performance Index (RPI) at 8 and the index less prices (RPI-P) at 10, both a bit above the zero line representing as-expected performance. The US at 22 on the RPI and 24 for the RPI-P continue to lead…

Little is expected from Thursday’s ECB announcement. Key interest rates are widely expected to be lowered over the course of the year but analysts see at most only a very slim chance of any move until there has been further evidence that underlying inflation is under control. Accordingly, the deposit rate (still the main benchmark…

The communications blackout period around the January 30-31 FOMC meeting goes into effect at midnight on Saturday, January 20 and lasts through midnight on Thursday, February 1. At this writing, Fed officials have pretty much said all they have to say regarding the outlook for monetary policy. The data about inflation in December suggests that…

Underpinned by the US, global economic data are coming in slightly ahead of expectations, at 11 for the Relative Performance Index. When excluding prices (RPI-P), the index eases slightly to 5 and very near the breakeven zero line. The US is far outperforming other economies relative to expectations, at scores of 42 both including and…

On Tuesday, January 16, the general business conditions index in the New York Fed’s Empire State survey of manufacturing plunged 29.2 points to minus 43.7 in the January report. On Thursday, January 18, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook survey saw its general business conditions index rise 2.2 points to minus 10.6. How to reconcile…

January 15 is a federal holiday for the observance of M.L. King, Jr. day in the US. Stock and bond markets will be fully closed, but many businesses will be open. Disruptions to the data calendar are few, although it does mean that government releases will be packed into a four-day period. With the next…

Global economic activity has been exceeding expectations for much of the past six weeks, though only modestly in the latest week at plus 6 on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI). Even so, extended outperformance would continue to prompt more cautious views for prospective rate cuts in 2024. In the Eurozone, signs of an unexpectedly large…

The evidence in half-over-half percent changes in the December CPI report is that upward price pressures at the consumer level are easing back to the Federal Reserve’s two percent inflation objective, and that the improvement is picking up some steam. On net the data point to inflation coming under control and that the “long and…

Boeing reported 371 new commercial aircraft orders in December, up 257 from the 114 orders in November, and ending 2023 with gross new orders of 1,456 units, and net of cancellation of 1,314 units. The year total for gross new orders is the highest since 1,550 in 2014. For net new orders this is the…

The economic data calendar in the January 8 week is light. There will be plenty of time to digest the implications of the December employment numbers. However, the week does have one critical data report that will advance the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The December CPI at 8:30 ET on Thursday should offer…

Global economic data are on an upswing reflected in the Relative Performance Index (RPI) which is at plus 15. Signs last week that the Eurozone economy might have been stronger than expected in December boosted the region’s RPI to 23 and the index less prices (RPI-P) to a solid 50. However, while such readings may…

The St. Louis Fed announces its selection of Alberto G. Musalem to be its next president and CEO. He will be sworn in on April 2, 2024. Musalem will complete the unexpired term that ends February 28, 2026 and be eligible for reappointment after it expires. When he takes office, Musalem will be in line…

The week begins with the January 1 holiday that results in some shifts in the normal economic data release calendar. The ISM reports – manufacturing and services, respectively – for December will be out one day later than usual on the second and fourth business days of January rather than the usual first and third.…

The outlook for Fed monetary policy in 2024 is being shaped in large part by the inflation data and by inflation expectations for consumers and businesses. The challenge facing the FOMC is correctly interpreting the inflation data while navigating the inevitable bumps in the road ahead. It is this challenge that has policymakers looking past…

The December 25 week is essentially devoid of scheduled economic data that have market-moving potential. Most of the data will receive scan attention when released. Many businesses will be operating with minimal staffing or closed, and many consumers will be on vacation in the days between Christmas on Monday and New Years on Monday, January…

Global economic on net are exactly hitting consensus forecasts, producing a zero reading on the Relative Performance Index. But readings among individual economies show the usual variation with the Eurozone closing out a generally disappointing year at 23 on the index and when excluding prices (RPI-P) at minus 32 to indicate surprising weakness for both…

The December 18 week is the last before the week between Christmas and New Years. The two weeks are normally a quiet time for consumers and many businesses not in the retail sector. It may be hard to find much to get markets excited now that the final FOMC meeting of 2023 is out of…

Econoday’s aggregate Relative Performance Index ended the December 15 week at plus 1, very near the zero line for a third week in a row to indicate that global economic data, on net, are hitting consensus forecasts. Economic activity in the Eurozone is running a little behind market expectations, at minus 15 and at minus…

In line with the October meeting, investors are confident that this Thursday’s ECB announcement will leave key interest rates on hold. Indeed, further warning signs of an impending Eurozone recession together with a surprisingly steep fall in inflation have left most forecasters more focused on when the first cut might be delivered in 2024 and…

Not for the first time, the SNB surprised investors at its September’s Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA) when it announced no change to its policy rate. Despite some earlier hawkish rhetoric, a downward revision to the central bank’s inflation forecast combined with a deteriorating economic outlook proved enough to convince the monetary authority that its stance…

Little is expected from Thursday’s policy announcement. A very sizeable consensus sees Bank Rate being left at 5.25 percent and investors and financial markets alike seem quite convinced that the next move will be down, albeit not until well into 2024. Comments early last month from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill essentially concurred with this…

Global economic data are coming in very close to the zero line, at plus 2 on the Relative Performance Index. This compares with a score of 3 in the prior week to indicate that international forecasters are currently enjoying a high level of accuracy. Overall economic activity in the Eurozone continues to slightly lag forecasts…

Attention In the December 11 week will be narrowly focused on the rate announcement out of the December 12-13 FOMC meeting at 14:00 ET on Wednesday, along with the quarterly update to the summary of economic projections (SEP). It is widely anticipated that the FOMC will hold the fed funds target rate at its current…

In the December 4 week, Fed policymakers will be out of the public ear during the communications blackout period around the December 12-13 FOMC meeting. The blackout begins at midnight on Saturday, December 2 and runs through midnight on Thursday, December 14. While at this writing there is a solid chance that FOMC voters will…

Global data on net are coming in right at expectations, at plus 3 on the Relative Performance Index; zero on this index marks exact matching of consensus forecasts with actual results. The Eurozone has been lagging market expectations for some time but at 13, the RPI less prices (RPI-P) shows real economic activity now moving…

The lineup of the 2023 FOMC voters will be in place until the FOMC meeting on January 30-31, 2024. In 2023, the rotation of district bank presidents voting at FOMC meetings consists New York’s John Williams (FOMC Vice Chair), Philadelphia’s Patrick Harker, Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, and Minneapolis’ Neel Kashkari. While all of these policymakers were…

The available data for forecasting GDP growth in the fourth quarter 2023 are still scanty and the outlook could change as more numbers become available. However, the three Fed district bank GDP Nowcasts are surprisingly closely aligned and point to another quarter of moderate expansion for the US economy. If Fed policymakers are anticipating a…

Two questions will dominate in the November 27 week. First, how is the 2023 winter holiday shopping season shaping up? Second, will the FOMC raise rates again at the December 12-13 meeting. This week there may be more reliance on anecdotal evidence than economic reports, but both will affect how the current year ends for…

Global economic activity continues to struggle to keep up with market expectations. At minus 17, the RPI shows forecasters on average not too wide of the mark but underperformance can only bolster the chances of many central banks shifting to more accommodative monetary policies next year. In the Eurozone, the latest suite of economic data…

There’s been an uptick in talk about financial stability from Fed officials in the last few months. This is unsurprising given the concerns about how financial institutions are managing their interest rate risk after the FOMC raised short-term rates by a whopping 525 basis points between March 2022 and July 2023. Further, Fed policymakers are…

The November 20 week is effectively a three-day work week with the Federal holiday on Thursday for Thanksgiving and many workers taking leave on Friday to have a four-day weekend afterward. Black Friday is the unofficial kickoff for the holiday shopping season, although the early birds have been out in stores and online for some…

Global economic activity continued to fall slightly short of market expectations last week. At minus 14, the Relative Performance Index shows forecasters still a little too optimistic about current conditions and, with recent inflation indicators typically surprising on the downside, should bolster expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024. In the Eurozone, surprises in the…

Each year in November in conjunction with the release of the October producer price index, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases a report on the dollar value of quality changes for motor vehicle models in the upcoming model year. The November 2023 release is for the 2024 model year. The numbers support a trend that…

Will consumers spend a little more this winter holiday season with an extra day to shop? In 2023, there are 32 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, up from 31 days in 2022 and 2 days more than the average of 30 days. A longer shopping period likely means that consumers will stretch out their shopping…

The economic data release schedule is crowded in the November 13 week. There are three reports that should stand out, or would if not for a looming government shutdown on November 17. First is October’s CPI at 8:30 ET on Tuesday. The runup in gasoline prices in the summer months has given way to seven…

The Relative Performance Index, at a global reading of minus 24, has slipped further into negative surprise territory, boosting expectations in financial markets that it is just a matter of time before most major central banks begin to cut key interest rates. In the Eurozone, signs of recession are building with the RPI at minus…

Global economic data are, on net, coming in below consensus forecasts, at minus 13 on Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI), down nearly 30 points from the prior week to indicate that global interest rates may well have peaked. Accounting for much of the downdraft was the US with this country’s RPI at minus 19 for…

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spent much of his November 1 press briefing hammering on the point that a pause in hiking rates for a second FOMC meeting in a row does not mean that the bank is done raising rates. While it seems increasingly likely that the fed funds target rate range has peaked at…

Despite there being a clear MPC split on interest rates in September, further signs that inflation has probably peaked and, more generally, dismal real economy news have left forecasters seemingly fairly confident that the BoE will leave Bank Rate on hold this week. Last month, arch-dove, Swati Dhingra was joined by Governor Andrew Bailey, Deputy…

The global relative performance index is firm at 15 in no small way due to further upside surprises in both the US and Japan. Both mask, however, sub-par developments in the Eurozone and the UK. The Eurozone’s RPI is at minus 12 and slides to minus 22 when excluding prices (RPI-P). Both strengthen the hand…

The big question in the October 30 week is whether the FOMC will hold the fed funds target rate range at 5.25-5.50 percent for the second meeting in a row. The present crop of economic data and anecdotal evidence is expected to result in no change in rates after the October 31-November 1 meeting. A…

Investors were split over the likelihood of further tightening ahead of the ECB’s September meeting but there is a much broader consensus in favour of no change going into this Thursday’s announcement. Last month’s decision was clearly far from unanimous with some Governing Council (GC) members wanting at least a pause in interest rate hikes…

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist Chair Jerome Powell’s speech before the Economic Club of New York on October 19 was essentially the last word from Fed policymakers on the outlook for the October 31-November 1 FOMC meeting. The communications blackout period around the meeting goes into effect as of midnight on Saturday, October 21 and…

By Jeremy Hawkins, Econoday Economist Any lingering hopes for early interest rate cuts took a knock last week as the global Relative Performance Index (RPI) rose to 16, indicating a clear, albeit still limited, upside bias to surprises in the economic data. In the Eurozone, a limited supply of fresh data left the RPI at…

The time is coming close for the communications blackout period around the October 31-November 1 FOMC meeting. It will start at midnight on Saturday, October 21 and run through midnight on Thursday, November 2. Thus, anything Fed officials have to say regarding the outlook for the economy and monetary policy will shape expectations for the…

Monday, October 9 is a federal holiday to observe Indigenous People’s Day/Columbus Day in the US. However, this holiday is not universally observed. Bond markets are closed in the US, but stock markets are open. Government offices will be closed, but private businesses will mostly be open. After the big upside surprise in the data…

With the prospect of a government shutdown resolved – for now – the economic data calendar does not face any disruptions in the October 2 week. It is a week with plentiful data about the labor market in the US. Critical to the outlook for monetary policy is how the cooling in the labor market…

While the economic data calendar is well-populated in the September 25 week, nothing will distract from the looming federal shutdown if Congress fails to fund the government by September 30. A failure to pass a spending package would mean adding uncertainty to the economic outlook. Many businesses including small ones depend on government contracts; and…

Expectations are that the FOMC will leave rates unchanged after their deliberations on September 19-20. These are unlikely to be disappointed. The FOMC is unanimous in its determination to quell inflation and bring it back to the 2 percent flexible average inflation target. Where any disagreement is likely to emerge is in the size and/or…

Outperformance by Canada and the US continues to offset underperformance in Japan and the Eurozone, keeping Econoday’s Relative Performance Index (RPI) just north of the zero line at plus 3 to indicate that global economic data in sum are coming in fractionally above forecasts. ECB guidance that rates may now have topped out should be…

Speculation about another tightening at this week’s Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA) has eased somewhat in the wake of the recent slew of weak real economy data, sub-2 percent readings on both headline and core inflation, and local currency strength. The last change in June lifted the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.75 percent,…

Facing both renewed risks of recession but also still stubbornly high inflation, the policy dilemma facing this week’s BoE MPC meeting is even more stark than ever. In August, only one dove, Swati Dhingra, broke ranks to vote against what turned out to be a remarkable fourteenth successive tightening and two of the most hawkish…

The September 18 week includes the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday and release of the FOMC statement and update to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) at 14:00 ET on Wednesday. Jerome Powell’s press conference will begin at 14:30 ET on Wednesday. At this writing, it seems a safe bet that the FOMC will…

For the first time in a long while, the combination of a weak real economy and slowing underlying inflation has left investors unsure about tightening prospects at this week’s ECB meeting. Forecasters are quite evenly split over yet another rate hike or a pause and, indeed, just last week, the central bank governors from France,…

Thanks to North America the global economy is treading right at expectations, very near the zero line at plus 3 on Econoday’s Consensus Divergence Index (ECDI) and masking significantly negative readings across much of Europe and Asia. With a European Central Bank meeting coming up this week, let’s look first at the Eurozone. Economic data…

Monday is the 22nd anniversary of the terrorist attacks of September 11. It is not a federal holiday observance on the calendar. Stock and bond markets will be open. However, expect the day to have the tone of solemn remembrance and heightened security alerts. Fed policymakers will be silent – at least about monetary policy…

The full Senate has confirmed Governor Philip Jefferson to be the next Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve. As soon as he is sworn in, Jeffer will concurrently serve a four-year term as Vice Chair with his term as governor which expires January 31, 2036. Also, the Senate has confirmed Governor Lisa Cook to a…

The September 4 week begins with the Labor Day observance on Monday. As a federal holiday, stock and bond markets will be closed. The holiday means some US Treasury announcements and auctions will see adjustments to their usual times. Otherwise, it is a light data calendar. There will be plenty of time to mull over…

Now that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has delivered his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fedwatchers will set their expectations for the next FOMC meeting on September 19-20. Powell spoke about policymakers needing to be “agile” and responsive to incoming data. The only thing certain is that the tone of the remarks was definitely hawkish…

The economic data in the August 21 week will take a backseat to the annual Jackson Hole Symposium over the three days of August 24-26. This year’s topic is “Structural Shifts in the Global Economy”. The annual meeting of the minds is intended to have a more academic tone, but the gathering of policymakers means…

In the August 14 week, there will be more economic data that will affect the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy, although there is much more to come before the September 19-20 FOMC meeting. With more than a month before the next FOMC, it is too soon to confidently forecast any outcome of the deliberations.…

At the start of the third quarter 2023, the outlook for the cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries is for a modest increase in January 2024. Based on the CPI-W for July only, the year-over-year comparison with the CPI-W average for July-September 2022 is for an increase of 2.7 percent. This would be the lowest…

The August 7 week is going to be a sleepy one for economic data with only two reports likely to wake up markets. With the July employment data out of the way, the focus for the monetary policy outlook will shift back to the inflation measures. Front and center will be the July CPI at…

The Kansas City Fed announces the appointment of Jeffrey R. Schmid as its next president and CEO as of August 21. Schmid takes over from Esther George who retired in January and will fill the remainder of the term ending February 28, 2026. He will be eligible for another 5-year term after that. The announcement…

The Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey for July is consistent with tighter financial conditions in the second quarter 2023. Loan officers report tighter standards for lending and weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans and for all types of commercial real estate lending. Much the same is true for lending to households in the…

Following the surprise 50 basis point hike in Bank Rate in June, the BoE MPC is generally expected to revert to a smaller 25 basis point increase this week. However, there is a significant minority of market participants anticipating another 50 basis point move. Crucially, headline and core inflation have decelerated, although current levels of…

The July 31 week will be narrowly focused on what is happening in the labor market. At his July 26 press briefing, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the US labor market remains “very tight”. Despite 525 basis points worth of rate hikes since March 2022 and the highest fed funds target rate since 5.5 percent…

A quick roll call of FOMC voters suggests that before the communications blackout period began, the need for further rate hikes to ensure that inflation comes back to the 2 percent target was essentially unanimous. Most were cautious about the inflation data displaying sufficient disinflation. There is a solidly hawkish tone from the public remarks…

If the June policy announcement and subsequent official comments are anything to go by, ECB tightening is not over yet. The market consensus is for yet another 25 basis point increase on Thursday that would put the deposit rate at 3.75 percent, matching its October 2000 record high, the refi rate at 4.25 percent and…

None of the economic data on the calendar for the July 24 week will garner nearly as much attention as the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. In spite of widespread anticipation of a 25 basis point increase in the fed funds target range to 5.25-5.50 percent, this is by no means a done deal.…

The data stars are aligning in a way likely perhaps to keep the FOMC from raising interest rates at the upcoming July 25-26 meeting. The most recent inflation numbers for June show further progress in bringing inflation down, even the pesky persistence in core inflation. The labor market is cooling enough to improve the imbalance…

The announcement that St. Louis Fed President James Bullard will be stepping down as of August 14 means that the most senior among the District Bank presidents is leaving office. Bullard was sworn in on April 1, 2008 and is the last among the presidents who was on the FOMC during the Great Recession. The…

In assessing how Fed policymakers will react to the June CPI data, it may be worthwhile to take a look at not only the month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes, but also what it looks like at the half-year marks for the unadjusted indexes. In parsing the half-over-half percent changes which can reflect shorter-term movements, the…

In the July 10 week the focus will be on the reports related to inflation – the consumer price index (CPI), final-demand producer price index (PPI), and the import and export price indexes. All three are for June and will be released at 8:30 ET on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, respectively. These are the last…

How much progress has been made in quantitative tightening since the Fed started, in June last year, to reduce its reserve holdings of US treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities? It was on May 4, 2022 that the FOMC announced its plan to reduce the size of the balance sheet. For the June-August 2022 period the…

Although retail sales data for the second quarter 2023 are not yet complete, so far it looks like it could be solid enough to keep GDP from being negative when the advance estimate is released at 8:30 ET on Thursday, July 27. The GDP Nowcasts from the St. Louis and Atlanta Feds are currently both…

The July 3 week is shortened by what is effectively a holiday on Monday and the Independence Day observance on Tuesday. US stock and bond markets are open on Monday, but will both close early. Many businesses will have only a skeleton staff on Monday, or be closed entirely. Travel and leisure services as well…

The June 26 week closes out the second quarter 2023 with little economic data likely to cause any surprise in the days leading up to what will be for many the long Independence Day weekend (Saturday, July 1 through Tuesday, July 4). The reports on the calendar will probably only affirm what is already known.…

On Friday, June 23, the Federal Reserve released the tentative meeting calendar for 2024. There were no changes to the 2023 meeting calendar. The only item of note is that the November 6-7, 2024 meeting is on Wednesday and Thursday, not the usual Tuesday and Wednesday. This is because Election Day 2024 falls on Tuesday,…

Having previously delivered a 50 basis point hike at the March Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA), the SNB is widely expected to raise its policy rate again on Thursday. The last change lifted the benchmark rate to 1.50 percent, its fourth successive increase since the first back in June 2022, and, in the face of what…

On Friday, June 16 the Fed released the semiannual monetary policy report to Congress. The report is inclusive of data available through 16:00 ET on June 14. As such it doesn’t include the May data on retail sales, jobless claims for the week ended June 10, the import and export price indexes, or the University…

Stubbornly high inflation and accelerating wage growth would seem to leave the BoE with little choice but to hike Bank Rate for what would be a thirteenth consecutive meeting on Thursday. The market consensus is another 25 basis point increase that would put the benchmark rate at 4.75 percent, its highest level since April 2008…

Note that week starts with a federal holiday on Monday, although Juneteenth will not be universally observed. Some employers will give the holiday in the July 3 week to make a four-day weekend of July 1-4. US bond and stock markets will be closed for the federal holiday. The outcome of the June 13-14 FOMC…

Almost without exception, official comments since the May policy meeting have indicated that Governing Council (GC) members think key interest rates need to be higher if inflation is to be brought back under control. This clear bias has left investors anticipating another 25 basis point hike on Thursday which would put the deposit rate at…

The central question of the June 12 week is if the FOMC will pause in the current rate hike cycle at the end of the June 13-14 meeting or will it decide on another 25 basis point increase in the fed funds target range? The answer greatly depends on what the May CPI report has…

Will the FOMC leave the fed funds target range unchanged at the conclusion of the June 13-14 meeting? Or will it opt for another increase of 25 basis points to reach the highest since 5.25 percent in August 2007?1 Although a majority of Fed policymakers may have signaled leaning towards a pause before the start…

The June 5 week is a quiet one with few data releases on the calendar and nothing likely to be of market-moving impact. Fed policymakers will be out of the public eye during the communications blackout period around the June 13-14 FOMC meeting. The blackout goes into effect at midnight on Saturday, June 3 and…

The May 29 week starts with the Memorial Day observance on Monday when US debt and equity markets are closed. The four-day workweek has a concentration of economic reports related to the labor market. However, unless and until negotiations about raising the federal debt limit come to a successful conclusion with an increase, the data…

The minutes of the FOMC meeting of May 2-3 will be released on Wednesday at 14:00 ET. In the immediate wake of the FOMC statement there was optimism that Fed policymakers were leaning toward a pause in interest rates after a cumulative – and relatively swift – raising of the fed funds target range by…

The pivotal piece of data in the May 15 week should be the release of retail and food services sales for April at 8:30 ET on Tuesday. As the earliest data for the second quarter 2023 comes in, it will be assessed to see if growth has picked up after the 1.1 percent increase in…

The April senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices was presented to Fed policymakers at the May 2-3 FOMC meeting. It shows tighter standards and weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans (C&I) and for commercial real estate (CRE) lending. For residential real estate loans, almost all categories of lending have tightened standards…

With the central bank committed to getting inflation back on target and the global banking sector looking a good deal more stable, the latest developments in consumer prices suggest that yet another monetary tightening this week is all but nailed on. The widely-held view is that the MPC will choose to hike Bank Rate by…

The main points of interest in the May 8 week for the US are likely to be the cluster of reports on inflation – CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and import prices on Friday – and the release of the Fed’s senior loan officer survey on Monday. The loan officer survey is taken four…

With inflation still misbehaving and the global banking sector at least more stable, market expectations are for yet another hike in key ECB interest rates this week. However, in line with the March meeting, a reasonably broad consensus on the Governing Council (GC) about the need to tighten masks clear disagreements over the extent to…

While the May 1 week starts off the month with plenty of data on the calendar, there are only two things likely to keep market attention. First, the FOMC meeting on May 2-3 is expected to conclude with an increase of 25 basis points in the fed funds target range. It is also possible that…

The April 24 week will see an absence of Fed speakers during the communications blackout period around the May 2-3 FOMC meeting. The period begins at midnight on Saturday, April 23 and runs through midnight on Thursday, May 4.

On Monday, April 24, the Census Bureau issued annual revisions to the retail sales data. The revisions stretch back through 2010 but with negligible differences over most of that time. They are, however, more noticeable starting in 2021.

If the 35.4 point rise in the New York Fed’s manufacturing general business conditions index to 10.8 in April raised hopes of a rebound for the factory sector, the index’s counterpart in the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing business outlook survey dashed them.

There are few economic data reports with market-moving potential in the April 17 week. Strength in the housing market should not be a surprise.

The April 10 week is a fairly busy one for economic data. The standouts will be the March CPI data on Wednesday at 8:30 ET and retail and food services sales at 8:30 ET on Friday. The CPI will be critical to the inflation outlook for Fed policymakers. The data will be scrutinized to see…

The focus in the April 3 week will be on labor market data, just how tight employment remained at the end of the first quarter 2023 and what that means for the economic outlook and monetary policy

There are few reports with market-moving potential in the March 27 week. Most of the data will add a nuance to what is already known regarding conditions in the housing market in February, the state of consumer confidence in March, and the tone of the surveys of manufacturing and services for March. The third and…

In line with most other major central banks, the SNB had been expected to extend its tightening cycle this week. Having last raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 1.0 percent in December, another 50 basis point increase was widely anticipated at Thursday’s Monetary Policy Assessment (MPA). However, the turmoil in global banking…

The March BoE MPC meeting had been widely expected to deliver an eleventh successive increase in Bank Rate with the majority of forecasters looking for a 25 basis point hike in the benchmark rate to 4.25 percent. This would have boosted the cumulative tightening in the current cycle to some 415 basis points. However, the…

There is little doubt that the coming will be tightly focused on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The release of the meeting statement at 14:00 ET on Wednesday will settle speculation about whether Fed voters will pause interest rate hikes or take rates higher for the eighth meeting in a row. If the…

In terms of policy, Thursday’s announcement should be something of a damp squib. Although supposedly no longer offering forward guidance, the February statement made it clear that the ECB intends to raise its key interest rates by a further 50 basis points. This would put the (still key) deposit rate at 3.0 percent, the refi…

Note: The following was written before the news of the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). This is the sort of exogenous event that throws the near-term outlook for monetary policy into uncertainty. The question is whether this is an isolated incident or one which represents systemic risk. The proximity to the FOMC meeting on…

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver the semiannual monetary policy testimony – by old habit often called the Humphrey-Hawkins testimony – at 10:00 EST on Tuesday before the Senate Banking Committee and on Wednesday at the House Financial Services Committee. Powell’s prepared remarks are likely to closely echo the content of the Monetary…

A lot of the focus in the March 6 week will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the semiannual monetary policy testimony. He will appear before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday at 10:00 ET and again before the House Financial Services Committee at 10:00 ET on Wednesday. In his prepared remarks, Powell is…

While the week beginning February 27 includes the first Friday of the month on March 3, that day isn’t an Employment Friday. The employment situation for February won’t be released until Friday, March 10. The February survey reference period ended Saturday, February 18. It takes three weeks to prepare the report. The wait for scheduling…

The February 20 week is shortened by the Presidents Day observance on Monday. Stock and bond markets will be closed in the US. At this writing the dates of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semiannual monetary policy testimony have yet to be announced. This brings the minutes of the January 31-February 1 FOMC meeting into greater…

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard is leaving the Board of Governors as of February 20. After that, she will be joining the Biden Administration’s National Economic Council as Director. This makes her the top economic advisor to President Biden. Her appointment will give her the kind of experience that has often been part of a…

It is sometimes hard to parse out what Fed policymakers mean when they talk about non-housing services inflation. The CPI report has a special aggregate of the CPI for services less rent of shelter. It probably isn’t a perfect match with the Fed’s rhetoric, but it serves as a proxy. A look at the data…

There are two reports in the February 13 week that will be closely examined for hints about the direction of monetary policy and the state of the US economy. First is the January consumer price index on Tuesday at 8:30 ET. There’s an ongoing gap between market expectations that the FOMC will lower short-term rates…

The BLS annual revisions to the CPI seasonal adjustment factors released on February 10 go back 5 years. The revisions don’t change the overall picture for the CPI performance in the last few years. Most of the revisions are small and offsetting on a month-over-month basis. However, it is notable that the CPI seasonally adjusted…

There’s virtually nothing on the economic data calendar that is likely to capture market attention in the February 6 week, especially as it will take a little time to fully digest the implications of January’s employment report. Nonfarm payrolls posted a whopping 517,000 increase in the month, dwarfing market expectations. Even accounting for a few…

There may be differences over the desired size of any hike, but a concerted raft of hawkish comments from Governing Council (GC) members this month strongly suggests unanimity over the need for higher ECB interest rates on Thursday. The market consensus is for a second successive 50 basis point increase which, if correct, would put…

Having already been raised in December 2021 and again at each MPC meeting in 2022, Bank Rate is widely expected to be hiked for a tenth successive time on Thursday. However, the magnitude of Thursday’s move is much less certain. Splits on the MPC have become significant with the doves mainly focussed on slowing, if…

The January 30 week will see a laser-focus on the outcome of the January 31-February 1 FOMC meeting. It is not in question as to whether FOMC voters will raise the fed funds target range after their deliberations. What is unsure is by how much – the probable 25 basis points or less likely 50…

The January 23 week encompasses the communications blackout period around the January 31-February 1 FOMC meeting. This starts at midnight on Saturday, January 21 and runs through midnight on Thursday, January 26. Fed officials will make no public comment about monetary policy during this time. Note that the Fed has announced that Chair Jerome Powell…

The general business conditions index in the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey plunged 21.7 points to minus 32.9, its lowest since minus 78.2 in April 2020 and minus 48.5 in May 2020 during the first months of the pandemic. Before that it was minus 33.7 in March 2009 during the Great Recession. The…

The January 16 week starts with a federal holiday on Monday to observe Marin Luther King, Jr. Day. There will be a full close for both the bond and stock markets. There will be little impact on the data release schedule for the week, although Treasury offerings and auctions will see some shifts. The two…

As a footnote to the December CPI numbers, it is worth to look at former Fed Vice Chair Alan Blinder’s January 5 op-ed in the Wall Street Journal where he said that the year-over-year readings for the CPI understate the progress in taming inflation made by FOMC rate hikes. He said a look at the…

Boeing announced 250 new orders for commercial aircraft in December after no orders being booked in November. The hefty increase ends 2022 with a flourish with gross new orders of 935, somewhat better than the gross new orders of 909 in 2021. However, when looking at net new orders, 2022 totaled 808, far better than…

The January 9 week has a light data schedule. There will be time to consider the implications of the December jobs report from Friday, January 6 on the direction of monetary policy when the FOMC next meets on January 31-February 1. With the labor market showing no sign of improvement in the imbalance of supply…

The new year starts off slowly in the January 2 week. Monday is a federal holiday with full market closures. Release of the economic data is minimal on Tuesday. Most of the reports are crowded into the last three days of the week. Note that the calendar includes some release dates that are pushed back…

The December 26 week is a sleepy one, or it should be. The economic data calendar saw a pre-holiday rush to get the major reports out in the prior week. This coming week is pretty much second-tier data reports and things that can be shelved until after the New Year. Monday is a federal holiday…

In the September 12 week, analysts will keep a close watch on the economic data to shape expectations for the September 20-21 FOMC meeting. Fed policymakers will be in their communications blackout period (midnight, September 10 through midnight, September 22). The coming week has the last two reports that are likely to have a noticeable…

September 5 week was a full market close in observance of Labor Day making a sparse week for the economic calendar even sparser. This will allow plenty of time to mull over the August employment numbers from the prior week and speculate about the direction of Fed monetary policy. With one exception, the reports on…

Having been surprised by the magnitude of the interest rate hike in July, the majority of investors now believe that the ECB is set on front-end loading its tightening policy as it tries to bring inflation back under control. Forward guidance went out the window with July’s 50 basis point move that was double what…